Gold & Silver Trading Alert originally sent to subscribers on September 10, 2015, 7:49 AM
Briefly: In our opinion, short (full) speculative positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward point of view.
Gold, silver and mining stocks declined once again yesterday, but this was not surprising to those who followed our analysis. We moved to the short side many days ago and the profits have just increased. Will they increase even more?
Quite likely. The gold chart features a good reason for it (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
To a large extent, our previous comments on the above chart remain up-to-date:
We just saw another daily close below the neck line of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, which makes the breakdown more confirmed. Based on our experience, it usually takes 3 trading days for a given move to be completely confirmed, so the situation will become even more bearish if gold closes below the neck line also today (which seems quite likely).
Gold indeed closed below the neck level of the head-and-shoulders pattern and that’s a very bearish sign as it means that the breakdown was confirmed. A move below $1,080 has just become much more likely and so has the chance of increasing our profits on the current short position.
From the non-USD perspective, we see that gold is at its previous lows. It’s not at the 2013 / 2014 lows but its certainly at the 2015 ones. The medium-term trend remains down and it seems very likely that gold will move even lower in the coming weeks.
We recently commented on silver’s performance from the short-term perspective and in today’s alert we would like to focus on the long-term one. Silver’s recent move higher is almost invisible on the above chart and that tells us something about this move’s importance. Silver is below its 2010 low and it’s already after a rebound that followed the first attempt to move below it.
Consequently, it’s much more likely that silver will manage to move below the 2010 low at this attempt. If it doesn’t, it’s not likely to rally significantly anyway, as the declining red dashed resistance line is relatively close. The outlook remains bearish.
We’ll change the perspective also in the case of mining stocks. The decline in gold stocks proceeds in tune with what we saw in 2008 and we have just seen an important signal that miners will move considerably lower in the coming weeks. The Stochastic indicator based on the weekly closing prices flashed a sell signal and these signals are not to be ignored – they’ve been quite reliable in the previous several years.
Summing up, the precious metals sector declined as expected, but it seems that the real decline is only beginning and that our profits from the short position will be much higher before the decline is over. We just saw 2 additional reasons for metals and miners to move lower: the verification of the breakdown in gold and a sell signal from the Stochastic indicator, and both of them have quite strong bearish implications. Even if we see a small corrective rally shortly, it will likely not change the main medium-term trend, which remains down.
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To summarize:
Trading capital (our opinion): Short position (full) position in gold, silver and mining stocks is justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following stop-loss orders and initial (! – this means that reaching them doesn’t automatically close the position) target prices:
- Gold: initial target price: $1,050; stop-loss: $1,213, initial target price for the DGLD ETN: $98.37; stop loss for the DGLD ETN $65.60
- Silver: initial target price: $12.60; stop-loss: $16.73, initial target price for the DSLV ETN: $96.67; stop loss for DSLV ETN $40.28
- Mining stocks (price levels for the GDX ETN): initial target price: $11.57; stop-loss: $17.33, initial target price for the DUST ETN: $41.10; stop loss for the DUST ETN $8.54
In case one wants to bet on junior mining stocks' prices (we do not suggest doing so – we think senior mining stocks are more predictable in the case of short-term trades – if one wants to do it anyway, we provide the details), here are the stop-loss details and initial target prices:
- GDXJ: initial target price: $16.27; stop-loss: $24.33
- JDST: initial target price: $16.98; stop-loss: $3.42
Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions
Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position
Please note that a full position doesn’t mean using all of the capital for a given trade. You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.
As a reminder – “initial target price” means exactly that – an “initial” one, it’s not a price level at which we suggest closing positions. If this becomes the case (like it did in the previous trade) we will refer to these levels as levels of exit orders (exactly as we’ve done previously). Stop-loss levels, however, are naturally not “initial”, but something that, in our opinion, might be entered as an order.
Since it is impossible to synchronize target prices and stop-loss levels for all the ETFs and ETNs with the main markets that we provide these levels for (gold, silver and mining stocks – the GDX ETF), the stop-loss levels and target prices for other ETNs and ETF (among other: UGLD, DGLD, USLV, DSLV, NUGT, DUST, JNUG, JDST) are provided as supplementary, and not as “final”. This means that if a stop-loss or a target level is reached for any of the “additional instruments” (DGLD for instance), but not for the “main instrument” (gold in this case), we will view positions in both gold and DGLD as still open and the stop-loss for DGLD would have to be moved lower. On the other hand, if gold moves to a stop-loss level but DGLD doesn’t, then we will view both positions (in gold and DGLD) as closed. In other words, since it’s not possible to be 100% certain that each related instrument moves to a given level when the underlying instrument does, we can’t provide levels that would be binding. The levels that we do provide are our best estimate of the levels that will correspond to the levels in the underlying assets, but it will be the underlying assets that one will need to focus on regarding the sings pointing to closing a given position or keeping it open. We might adjust the levels in the “additional instruments” without adjusting the levels in the “main instruments”, which will simply mean that we have improved our estimation of these levels, not that we changed our outlook on the markets. We are already working on a tool that would update these levels on a daily basis for the most popular ETFs, ETNs and individual mining stocks.
Our preferred ways to invest in and to trade gold along with the reasoning can be found in the how to buy gold section. Additionally, our preferred ETFs and ETNs can be found in our Gold & Silver ETF Ranking.
As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional Alerts whenever appropriate.
The trading position presented above is the netted version of positions based on subjective signals (opinion) from your Editor, and the Tools and Indicators.
As a reminder, Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are posted before or on each trading day (we usually post them before the opening bell, but we don't promise doing that each day). If there's anything urgent, we will send you an additional small alert before posting the main one.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
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