Yesterday, there was a truck attack in Berlin, while Russia’s ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Ankara. What do these tragic events mean for the gold market?
On Monday evening a truck rammed into a Christmas market in Berlin, killing nine people and injuring at least 50 others. The incident in the capital of Germany is the latest in a string of attacks in Germany and the whole of Europe over the last several months. As a reminder, in November 2015 there were terrible terrorist attacks in Paris, in March terrorists launched coordinated attacks across Brussels, while in July there was a similar truck attack in Nice. The attacks in Berlin may entail some effects on the gold market in the long-term, as they could affect the outcome of the 2017 elections in several European countries, by increasing the fear of terrorism and strengthening the populist parties.
Also on Monday, Andrey Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, was killed in a gun attack at an art exhibition in Ankara, the capital of Turkey. The attacker shouted “Don’t forget Aleppo, don’t forget Syria!” Perhaps we would not cover this tragic event, but it bears some resemblances to the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand by Gavrilo Princip in 1914, which triggered World War I.
The incidents raised geopolitical concerns, which could increase the demand for safe-haven assets. Indeed, both U.S. Treasuries and gold advanced in the aftermath of these events. However, investors should not forget that both incidents occurred outside the U.S., which strengthened the greenback against the Turkish lira, Russian ruble and the Euro. A stronger U.S. dollar is usually bad news for gold bulls.
Will gold prices rally after these tragic events? Well, investors should not count on anything but a short-lived reaction. Recent history may be a guide, as none of the Paris, Brussels, or Nice attacks boosted gold. The reason is that geopolitical events which occur overseas and not in America often do not have any durable effects on the gold market, or they even exert downward pressure on gold due to the appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Moreover, given the negative sentiment and bearish trend in the gold market, the bullish news should not affect the price of the yellow metal to the same extent as during a bull market in gold. Indeed, the price of gold declined on Tuesday, which signals that the incidents failed to spur safe-haven demand for the yellow metal. Instead, investors focused on the hawkish Yellen’s comments about the strength of the U.S. labor market.
If you enjoyed the above analysis, we invite you to check out our other services. We focus on fundamental analysis in our monthly Market Overview reports and we provide daily Gold & Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals. If you’re not ready to subscribe yet and are not on our mailing list yet, we urge you to join our gold newsletter today. It’s free and if you don’t like it, you can easily unsubscribe.
Disclaimer: Please note that the aim of the above analysis is to discuss the likely long-term impact of the featured phenomenon on the price of gold and this analysis does not indicate (nor does it aim to do so) whether gold is likely to move higher or lower in the short- or medium term. In order to determine the latter, many additional factors need to be considered (i.e. sentiment, chart patterns, cycles, indicators, ratios, self-similar patterns and more) and we are taking them into account (and discussing the short- and medium-term outlook) in our trading alerts.
Thank you.
Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Gold News Monitor and Market Overview Editor
Gold News Monitor
Gold Trading Alerts
Gold Market Overview
