Briefly: gold and the rest of the precious metals market are likely to decline in the next several weeks/months and then start another powerful rally. Gold’s strong bullish reversal/rally despite the USD Index’s continuous strength will likely be the signal that confirms that the bottom is in.

Welcome to this week's Gold Investment Update. Predicated on last week’s price moves, our most recently featured outlook remains the same as the price moves align with our expectations. On that account, there are parts of the previous analysis that didn’t change at all in the earlier days, which will be written in italics.

Let’s start with a quick review of the key fundamental news that hit the market last week – the relatively strong employment growth in June.

Return of the Labor Force

850,000. This is how many jobs the US economy added in June. It means that the recent nonfarm payrolls came above the forecasts (economists predicted 700,000 created jobs) and are much higher than the 583,000 in May or the deeply disappointing 269,000 in April (see the chart below).

The newest employment situation report is negative for the yellow metal mainly because it strengthens the positions of hawks within the FOMC. With a strong labor market, there are higher chances that the Fed will normalize its monetary policy earlier.

However, the initial response of the yellow metal was positive. This is probably because the report wasn’t as good as it could be – i.e., although the nonfarm payrolls release beat expectations, the unemployment rate increased.

Medium-Term Implications for Gold

While we witnessed a classic ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ event on Jul. 2, the outperformance of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls shows that the labor market continues to heal. However, with enhanced unemployment benefits still in play, it will likely take until August or September for the real momentum to build.

Please see below:

Interestingly, with the U.S. economy “shaping up nicely," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly hinted on Jul. 2 that the central bank could scale back its bond-buying program.

Source: Reuters

Likewise, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker told the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) on Jul. 1 that the Fed should immediately pump the brakes on its asset purchases:

Source: WSJ

Furthermore, because the bond market remains skeptical of the recovery, the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield, on a relative basis, is still trading at (or near) an all-time low. For example, the Treasury benchmark still demonstrates its largest-ever divergence from the U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate.

Please see below:

However, if another explosion erupts in the bond market, the yellow metal will likely be buried under the rubble.

To explain, I wrote on May 11:

The gold line above tracks the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Gold Price, while the red line above tracks the inverted U.S. 10-Year real yield. For context, inverted means that the latter’s scale is flipped upside down and that a rising red line represents a falling U.S. 10-Year real yield, while a falling red line represents a rising U.S. 10-Year real yield.

If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that when the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield began its move to reconnect with the U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate in 2013 (taper tantrum), the U.S. 10-Year real yield surged (depicted by the red line moving sharply lower). More importantly, though, amidst the chaos, gold plunged by more than $500 in less than six months.

Over the medium-to-long term, the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is yet another leading indicator of gold’s future behavior.

I wrote previously:

When the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is rising (meaning that copper prices are rising at a faster pace than the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield), it usually results in higher gold prices. Conversely, when the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio is falling (meaning that the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield is rising at a faster pace than copper prices), it usually results in lower gold prices.

If you analyze the chart below, you can see the close connection:

Moreover, even after already accounting for the yellow metal’s recent plunge, the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio still signals a gold price of roughly $1,695.

Please see below:

What About Copper?

With the copper/U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ratio highly correlated with the yellow metal, copper’s rocket ship helped lift gold above $1,900. However, with the momentum sputtering, gold has already suffered a hard landing.

Also, do you remember what I wrote about copper on June 9?

I wrote the following:

Namely, copper has just invalidated its breakout to new highs, which means that – just like in the case of gold in August 2020 – it wasn’t strong enough to soar higher. Well, it’s not to say that copper is weak, as it has more than doubled its price since the 2020 lows. However, it does mean that it’s likely time for a bigger corrective downswing, especially given that we haven’t seen one in many months. For instance, when gold invalidated its breakout above the 2011 high despite very bullish fundamentals, it meant that forecasting gold at lower levels was very much justified.

Likewise, when copper failed to hold its breakout above the 2008 high back in 2011, it was followed by a multi-year decline. Will the same happen this time? I wouldn’t bet on that given the amount of money being pumped into the system, but even if this is not the case, copper is likely to suffer a significant drawdown on a temporary basis. No market can move up or down in a straight line, and neither copper nor gold nor silver are exceptions to this rule.

Ok, but why is it important for the precious metals investors?

Because of two things:

1. Both markets tend to move in a big way at similar times. The more local moves can vary, but the really big price moves are usually aligned. For example, the 2008 – 2011 rally and the fact that they both bottomed in late-2015 / early-2016.
2. The copper price is quite closely related to the general stock market and the former’s inability to hold above its previous highs seems to be an indication of a change in the trend in the general stock market as well.

And indeed, copper has declined substantially.

Finally, the S&P GSCI (the commodity index) has decoupled from the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield. And with the former moving in near lockstep with the latter since 2015, a reversal of the imbalance could increase the PMs’ troubles over the medium term.

On the flip side, if we extend our time horizon, there are plenty of fundamental reasons why gold is likely to soar in the coming years. However, even the most profound bull markets don’t move up in a straight line, and corrections are inevitable.

As it relates to the precious metals, a significant correction (medium-term downtrend) is already underway. However, the pain is not over, and a severe climax likely awaits.

For context, potential triggers are not always noticeable, and the PMs may collapse on their own or as a result of some random trigger that normally wouldn’t cause any major action. However, a trigger will speed things up, and that’s where the S&P 500 comes in:

Stock Market Signals

With the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 hitting new highs last week, the PMs’ countdown to a medium-term bottom has been paused for the time being. For context, the precious metals used to bottom about 3 – 3.5 months after the top in the general stock market in some of the similar cases – for instance, in 1929. And with the two major indices reaching new heights, the timeframe of the PMs’ final trough has been delayed.

However, even though the NASDAQ Composite moved notably higher, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bearish – please note that last week’s strength was not enough to invalidate months of underperformance of the S&P 500 index (marked in red). Keep in mind as well: the PMs can still elicit weakness even while the general stock market seeks higher ground.

As for the S&P 500, the U.S. equity benchmark’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) is still showing similarity to late 2019 – early 2020 and the double-top that was present in 2018. Moreover, with the S&P 500’s RSI making its third leap above 70, the indicator is likely in the process of forming a triple-top. To that point, while the RSI’s acceleration back above 70 changes the calculus relative to 2019/2020 – making the current interpretation relatively less bearish – there were two moves above 70 in the case of the RSI in early 2020 and only now we have the third one suggesting that something is different.

At the same time, however, the analogy is more bearish in terms of price moves. Stocks moved to a new high after back-and-forth movement with RSI close to 70. That’s what marked the end of the rally in early 2020.

More importantly, though, once the S&P 500 succumbs to this bearish reality, the development will likely compound the PMs’ selling pressure.

For more context on the 2019/2020 analogy, I wrote previously:

Why should we – precious metals investors and traders – be concerned with the performance of stocks? Because when stocks finally top and start to decline, it will likely make the decline in the precious metals market much more severe. For one, identical developments occurred in 2008, 2020 and 1929. Second, the precious metals often bottom about 3 – 3.5 months after the top in the general stock market. Third, the S&P 500’s 2020 analogue is becoming even more valid by the day.

(…)

The markets are self-similar (which is another way of saying that they have a fractal nature), which generally means that while the history tends to rhyme, it also tends to rhyme in similar shapes of alike or various sizes.

For example, the rally from 2018–2020 seems very similar to the rally from 2020 to the present. Both rallies started after a sharp decline, and the first notable correction took the form of back-and-forth trading around the previous high. I marked those situations with big rectangles.

Then the rally continued with relatively small week-to-week volatility. I created rising support lines based on the final low of the broad short-term consolidation and the first notable short-term bottom.

This line was broken, and some back-and-forth trading followed, but it was only about half of the previous correction in terms of price and time.

Then, we saw a sharp rally that then leveled off. And that was the top. The thing that confirmed the top was the visible breakdown below the rising support line right after stocks invalidated a tiny breakout to new highs. That’s what happened in February 2020, and that’s what seems to be taking place right now.

Back in 2020, the rally ended when the weekly RSI moved above 70 once again and when the S&P moved slightly to its new highs. While the history doesn’t have to repeat itself to the letter, if we see another small move higher – to new highs – that also takes the RSI above 70, please keep in mind that it’s not really a bullish development, but actually history forming its final rhyme. And the implications appear bearish for the precious metals sector, as it’s likely to be hit by the first wave of stock market declines – just like it was the case in 2008, 2020, and… 1929.

The bottom line?

It seems that history is indeed forming its final rhyme. However, can we start the 3-3.5-month countdown now? Well, while timing remains uncertain, the main drivers of the stock market’s success are beginning to sputter. With inflation running hot and employment likely to surge in the coming months (once enhanced unemployment benefits expire), all of the boxes should be checked for the FED to taper its asset purchases. And with investors largely averse to a reduction in liquidity, the outcome could have a profound impact on both the general stock market and the PMs.

Keep in mind though: a decline in stocks is not required for the PMs to decline. But a break in the former could easily trigger a sell-off in the latter, and if history decides to rhyme again, silver and the miners will be the hardest hit.

The USD Index (USDX)

With the USD Index ending last week above its prior weekly high and its June highs (on a weekly basis), the bullish momentum continues to build. However, with the USDX approaching its rising resistance line, short-term weakness could appear. And if the greenback consolidates or moves slightly lower in the short term, the PMs could benefit from the dollar’s breather; but it’s not likely to trigger anything more than a short-term rebound.

However, with the USD Index often sprinting higher during the summer months (major USDX rallies often start during the middle of the year), a breakout above the rising resistance line could occur sooner rather than later. As a result, while the PMs may elicit superficial strength this week, it’s important to remember that the metals can give back weekly gains in a single day.

Please see below:

If the USD Index can surpass 93, the greenback will complete its inverse head & shoulders pattern, and the milestone will imply a short-term target of roughly 98.

On top of that, the seasonal thesis remains intact: I mentioned earlier that the USD Index often records material upswings during the middle of the year. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that summertime surges have been mainstays on the USD Index’s historical record. Likewise, double bottoms often signal the end of major declines and often ignite significant rallies. For example, in 2004, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014 and 2018, a retest of the lows (or close to them) occurred before the USD Index began its upward flights. In addition, back in 2008, U.S. equities’ plight added even more wind to the USD Index’s sails. And if the general stock market suffers another profound decline (along with gold miners and silver), a sharp re-rating of the USDX is likely in the cards.

Please see below (quick reminder: you can click on the chart to enlarge it):

If that wasn’t enough, the thesis is also supported by the USD Index’s long-term chart. To explain, the USDX’s long-term breakout remains intact, and if we steady the binoculars, the greenback’s uptrend is clearly in place.

Please see below:

Moving on to the Euro Index, the recent symmetrical decline mirrors the drawdown that we witnessed in mid-2020. And if the Euro Index breaks below the neckline of its bearish head & shoulders pattern, the slide could be fast and furious. For context, completion of the right shoulder signals a decline to (roughly) the June 2020 lows or even lower.

To that point, the Euro Index is currently on the cusp of a major climax. And while we have to wait until the index actually verifies the breakdown below the neckline of the bearish H&S pattern, a dip below 1.175 could open up the floodgates.

Please see below:

For context, I wrote previously:

The completion of the masterpiece could have a profound impact on gold, silver and mining stocks. To explain, gold continues to underperform the euro. If you analyze the bottom half of the chart above, you can see that material upswings in the Euro Index have resulted in diminishing marginal returns for the yellow metal. Thus, the relative weakness is an ominous sign. That’s another point for the bearish price prediction for gold.

The bottom line?

Once the momentum unfolds, ~94.5 is likely the USD Index’s first stop. In the months to follow, the USDX will likely exceed 100 at some point over the medium or long term. Keep in mind though: we’re not bullish on the greenback because of the U.S.’ absolute outperformance. It’s because the region is outperforming the Eurozone and the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index – the relative performance is what really matters.

The NASDAQ 100

As a secondary catalyst, a material drawdown of the NASDAQ 100 could eventually rattle U.S. equities.

Please see below:

To that point, given the USDX’s strong negative correlation with the NASDAQ 100, a material reset could propel the greenback back to its March highs. Moreover, following a short-term consolidation, the USDX could even exceed those previous highs.

Furthermore, relative outprinting by the European Central Bank (ECB) remains of critical importance. Last week, the FED/ECB ratio declined by 2.06%, while the EUR/USD declined by 0.59%. And given that the ratio has declined by nearly 20% since May 2020, the EUR/USD still has some catching up to do.

Please see below:

The key takeaway?

With the ECB injecting more liquidity to support an underperforming Eurozone economy, the FED/ECB ratio, as well as EUR/USD, should move lower over the medium term. More importantly, though, because the EUR/USD accounts for nearly 58% of the movement of the USD Index, EUR/USD pain will be the USDX’s gain.

In addition, the top in the FED/ECB total assets ratio preceded the slide in the EUR/USD less than a decade ago, and it seems to be preceding the next slide as well. If the USD Index was to repeat its 2014-2015 rally from the recent lows, it would rally to 114. This level is much more realistic than most market participants would agree on.

As another ominous sign for the currency pair, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) – released on Jun. 11 – rose from 82.9 in May to 86.4 in June and came in above the consensus estimate of 84. And with the CSI a reliable long-term indicator of the EUR/USD’s future value, the print stuck another fundamental dagger into the heart of the euro.

Please see below:

For context, I wrote on May 19:

The red line above tracks the EUR/USD, while the green line above tracks the inverted University of Michigan’s CSI. For context, inverted means that the latter’s scale is flipped upside down and that a rising green line represents a falling CSI, while a falling green line represents a rising CSI. More importantly, though, if you analyze the relationship, you can see that troughs in the CSI nearly always coincide with peaks in the EUR/USD. Moreover, while both variables had risen simultaneously, the EUR/USD is fighting a battle that it hasn’t won in 40+ years.

Very Long-Term Indications for Gold

Following the roadmaps that I’ve laid out, gold’s behavior is mirroring the analogies from 2008 and 2012.

To explain, I wrote previously:

With the month of June now on the books, the MACD indicator is still flashing red. And despite gold’s recent strength and all of the attention that has come with it, the MACD indicator has barely flinched. Furthermore, while a slight pause in the MACD indicator’s downtrend is clearly visible, an identical development also occurred in mid-2012. And what happened then? Well, if you analyze the chart below, you can see that gold’s joy quickly turned into sadness, and the yellow metal suffered a profound decline.

Even eerier, the MACD indicator’s recent pause has occurred at a level that also mirrors the analogue from 2012. And what happened back then? The yellow metal plunged by more than $600 before the bottom was finally reached. Likewise, the current position of the MACD indicator is also symmetrical to the 2008 top. And back then – during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – the yellow metal plunged by more than $334 from peak to trough (over 30%).

While short-term price movements often garner the most attention, it’s important to remember that gold’s long-term downtrend is also reminiscent of the second half of 2012. If you analyze the middle-right area of the chart below, you can see that the MACD indicator sounded the alarm in 2012. And while investors ignored the warning and gold moved higher, a profound plunge followed in 2013. Moreover, while the MACD indicator’s sell-signal was visible throughout gold’s entire journey – despite several ebbs and flows in the price action – the narrowing distance between the black and red lines actually preceded gold’s plunge. Thus, with gold’s swan song beginning to play at nearly the same level in 2013, the yellow metal’s recent strength is likely only the intermission.

The above-mentioned narrowing distance between the MACD lines can be seen clearly seen through the blue bars hovering around the 0 level on the indicator part of the chart. We now see the current blue bar move toward 0. We saw the same thing in the second half of 2012, which is when gold rallied for the last time before the huge slide.

Remember the huge gap between the U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield and the U.S. 10-Year breakeven inflation rate? The situation in the very long-term MACD indicator is yet another confirmation that what we saw recently is similar to what we saw before the huge 2012 – 2013 slide. We get the same confirmation from the gold to bonds ratio, and I’ll move to that a bit later.

Based on gold’s previous performance after the major sell signals from the MACD indicator, one could now expect gold to bottom in the ~$1,200 to ~1,350 range. Given the price moves that we witnessed in 1988, 2008 and 2011, historical precedent implies gold forming a bottom in this range. However, due to the competing impact of several different variables, it’s possible that the yellow metal could receive the key support at a higher level.

Considering the reliability of the MACD indicator as a sell signal for major declines, the reading also implies that gold’s downtrend could last longer and be more severe than originally thought. As a result, $1,500 remains the most likely outcome, with $1,350 still in the cards.

Circling back to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), if you focus your attention on the monthly price action in 2008, epic volatility coincided with the yellow metal’s fall from grace. Conversely, in 2012, gold’s initial decline was relatively muted before the climax unfolded. As a result, whether the yellow metal runs or walks toward its medium-term demise, last week’s price action was perfectly normal given the historical similarities. Namely, the volatility was significant but not as extreme as in 2008.

Please see below:

To explain, after making a new all-time high in 2008 (that was a breakout above the 1980 tops), gold declined back to its rising support line before recording a short-term corrective upswing. This upswing ended approximately at gold’s previous monthly closing price. I marked it with a horizontal, blue, dashed line.

Similarly, if you analyze the right side of the chart, you can see that an identical pattern has emerged. With gold’s corrective upswing following a reconnection with its rising support line, history implies that a sharp decline should occur in the coming months and that the reversal is at hand or already behind us. After all, the thing that triggered the decline almost a year ago was the fact that gold made a new all-time high. Moreover, the recent high was very close to the previous high in terms of the monthly closing prices (Dec. 2020 - $1,895.10 vs. the recent intraday high of $1,915.60).

In addition, when we zoom in on the weekly chart, the 2012 analogue is even more valid. Whether it’s the RSI indicator, the MACD indicator or the overall price action, the readings are profoundly similar, and the bearish implications remain intact. On top of that, if you analyze the right side of the chart below, you can see that gold failed to rally back above its rising black support line (which is now resistance). As a result, while the daily ups and downs may elicit superficial strength, the yellow metal’s weekly doldrums add further validity to the bearish thesis. You can also see the above breakdown on the chart below.

To explain, I wrote previously:

If you analyze the long-term chart below, you can see that gold has invalidated the breakout above its 2011 high. More importantly, though, with its rising support line (on the right side of the chart) also coinciding with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 2019 and 2020 lows, ~$1,450 to $1,500 is the most prudent medium-term price target.

Conversely, if the 2008 analogue repeats – and a crisis of confidence erupts across U.S. equities – the PMs could move substantially lower. When combining an equity shock with an USD Index’s resurgence, the yellow metal could bottom at roughly $1,400 (or even ~$1,350). Similarly, while the MACD indicator (on gold’s 40-year chart near the top of today’s edition) signals a bottom in the ~$1,200 to ~1,350 range, to be perfectly clear, ~$1,450 to $1,500 is the most likely outcome.

If you analyze the red arrow in the lower part of the above chart (the weekly MACD sell signal), today’s pattern is similar not only to what we saw in 2011, but also to what we witnessed in 2008. Thus, if similar events unfold – with the S&P 500 falling and the USD Index rising (both seem likely for the following months, even if these moves don’t start right away) – the yellow metal could plunge to below $1,350 or so. The green dashed line shows what would have happened to the gold price if it had not declined as much as it did in 2008.

In addition, relative to 2011-2013, today’s price action is also a splitting image. For starters, gold invalidated the breakout above its 2011 highs. Invalidations of breakouts are sell signals, and it’s tough to imagine a more profound breakout that could have failed.

Furthermore, if you analyze the right side of the chart above (the bottom section), you can see that the MACD indicator has sprouted a tiny weekly buy signal. However, it’s important to remember that the same signal emerged in mid-2008 – which confirmed the previous rally but had no bullish implications for the future. Case in point: following the reading in 2008, gold’s volatility increased, and the yellow metal suffered several declines before finding a lasting bottom in 2009. Thus, the recent reading is nothing to write home about. I marked both cases with red, dashed lines.

If that wasn’t enough, the gold/ Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index (Total Return) ratio has fallen below its rising support line. And when this occurred in 2012, the most violent part of gold’s decline was already underway.

Please see below:

To explain, if you analyze the middle of the chart above, you can see that the ratio recorded a countered rally, jumped back above its rising support line and 50-week moving average and then… collapsed. And with a similar pattern forming on the right side of the chart, the ratio is looking more and more like a widow-maker. Furthermore, when factoring in mining stocks’ bearish H&S patterns, the fundamental headwinds confronting gold and the strong likelihood of a medium-term swoon in the stock market, you can already hear the yellow metal’s death knell tolling in the distance.

Gold’s Short-and-Medium-Term Outlook

If we break out the measuring tape and analyze the shape and the length of gold’s price action in 2012, the yellow metal’s current behavior is a tailored fit. Case in point: the timeframe of the initial decline in 2012 approximately mirrored the length of the consolidation that followed. We see the same thing today – gold has been consolidating for more or less as long as it had been declining.

Even more bearish, gold’s recent relief rallies are barely visible on the daily chart. And while the yellow metal garnered strong support following the initial collapse in 2012 (rallying first to its 50% Fibonacci retracement, and then to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement), today supporters are nowhere to be found (as evidenced by the tepid consolidation on the right side of the chart below). This tells us that the gold market is much weaker right now than it was in 2012 and 2013. As a result, the medium-term outlook remains profoundly bearish.

Please see below:

On top of that, following a bounce in 2012, gold suffered one of its most meaningful historical drawdowns. For context, I’m excluding the 2008 analogy here because the level of volatility during the 2008 financial crisis has yet to materialize across the financial markets. Also, please note that the chart ends where a really huge decline starts, so the real follow-up is much more bearish than it seems based on the chart alone.

Please see below:

To explain, back in 2012, gold wasn’t confronted with a failed breakout of its previous highs. However, with the yellow metal unable to hold its August 2020 highs and maintain the breakout above its 2011 peak, even a fire hose of liquidity from the Fed couldn’t sustain the optimism. Thus, after gold corrected roughly half of its initial decline and then proceeded to rally back to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in 2012, the recovery was much stronger. This time is different – the yellow metal hasn’t risen visibly above its intraday lows to date. As a result, the outlook is even more bearish now than it was then.

For more on the 2008 and 2012 analogies (key factors for the medium-term outlook), I wrote on Jun. 4:

The analogies to how the situation in gold developed in 2008 and 2012, provides us with an extremely bearish price prediction for gold. Many other factors are pointing to these similarities, and two of them are the size of the correction relative to the preceding decline and to the previous rally. In 2012 and 2008, gold corrected to approximately the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Gold was very close to this level this year, and since the history tends to rhyme more than it tends to repeat itself to the letter, it seems that the top might already be in.

In both years, 2008 and 2012, there were three tops. Furthermore, the rallies that took gold to the second and third top were similar. In 2008, the rally preceding the third top was bigger than the rally preceding the second top. In 2012, they were more or less equal. I marked those rallies with blue lines in the above chart – the current situation is very much in between the above-mentioned situations. Also, the current rally is bigger than the one that ended in early January 2021 but not significantly so.

Remember what happened when gold previously attempted to break above major long-term highs? It was in 2008 and gold was breaking above its 1980 high. Gold wasn’t ready to truly continue its bull market without plunging first. This downswing was truly epic, especially in the case of silver and mining stocks; and now even gold’s price patterns are like what we saw in 2008.

My previous comments on the analogies to 2008 and 2012 remain up-to-date:

Back in 2008, gold corrected to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, but it stopped rallying approximately when the USD Index started to rally, and the general stock market accelerated its decline.

Taking into consideration that the general stock market has probably just topped, and the USD Index is about to rally, then gold is likely to slide for the final time in the following weeks/months. Both above-mentioned markets support this bearish scenario and so do the self-similar patterns in terms of gold price itself.

Moreover, while the pace of gold’s decline in 2012 started off slow, the momentum picked up later on as the drawdown became even more vicious.

Please see below:

The relatively broad bottom with higher lows is what preceded both final short-term rallies – the current one, and the 2012 one. Their shape as well as the shape of the decline that preceded these broad bottoms is very similar. In both cases, the preceding decline had some back-and-forth trading in its middle, and the final rally picked up pace after breaking above the initial short-term high.

Interestingly, the 2012 rally ended on huge volume, which is exactly what we saw also on May 19 this year. Consequently, forecasting much higher silver or gold prices here doesn’t seem to be justified based on the historical analogies.

The thing I would like to emphasize here is that gold didn’t form the final top at the huge-volume reversal on Sep. 13, 2012. It moved back and forth for a while and moved a bit above that high-volume top, and only then the final top took place (in early October 2012). 

The same happened in September and in October 2008. Gold reversed on huge volume in mid-September, and it was approximately the end of the rally. The final top, however, formed after some back-and-forth trading and a move slightly above the previous high.

Consequently, the fact that gold moved a bit above its own high-volume reversal (May 19, 2021) is not an invalidation of the analogy, but rather its continuation.

On top of that, with the Fed’s confidence game won or lost by whether or not inflation proves “transitory,” wouldn’t the central bank appreciate lower gold prices? If you think about it, it would be awfully convenient for the price of gold to decline in order to prove the point of the transitory nature of inflation.

Now, as you know, I’m not a fan of all the conspiracy theories that are out there, and I’m not the first to shout gold manipulation or silver manipulation every time the yellow or while metal goes down, but I also know that being realistic is one of my strengths. With the situation being what it is, and since the communities of top investment bankers and the community of officials interlace, I think that we have yet another reason to expect that the gold price is going to slide in the following weeks/months.

Finally, there are more layers to the analogue from 2008 that are extremely important.

Please see below:

Please note (in the lower part of the above chart) that back then, the final huge slide in the mining stocks started when the GDX ETF moved back to its previous highs, while the USD Index moved a bit below its rising support line based on the previous tops. That’s exactly what happened recently as well. The final bottom in the GDX ETF formed about 3 months later at about 1/3 of its starting price.

The recent high was $40.13 and 1/3 thereof would be $13.38. While I don’t want to say that we will definitely see the GDX ETF as low as that, it’s not something that would be out of the ordinary, given the analogy to 2008. Now you see why the large bottoming target on the GDX ETF chart with the lower border in the $15s might actually be conservative… As always, I’ll keep you – my subscribers – updated.

“Ok, but what price level would be likely to trigger a bigger rebound during the next big slide?”

Well, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level (it’s visible as the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the above chart as inverting the scale is used as a workaround) also coincides with gold’s April 2020 low. Taken together, an interim bottom could form in the ~$1,575 to $1,600 range.

For context, back in early March, the yellow metal continued to decline after reaching the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (visible as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement) level, while, in contrast, the miners began to consolidate. Gold finally bottomed slightly below the retracement – at its previous lows. This time around, we might witness a similar event. And while the story plays out, the miners’ relative strength should signal the end of the slide (perhaps with gold close to 1,600), while gold will likely garner support sometime thereafter (at $1,575 – $1,580 or so).

Remember though: this is only an interim target. Over the medium term, the yellow metal will likely form a lasting bottom in the ~$1,450 to $1,500 range.

Gold moved higher in today’s pre-market trading, and it moved above its recent short-term highs. However, it’s still far from correcting even half of the preceding decline, and today’s move higher remains similar to the January price movement that I marked with a rectangle. And just as a much bigger decline followed back then, we’re likely to see one shortly as well.

The Gold Miners

After the HUI Index plunged by more than 10% and made all of its 2021 gains disappear, the magic trick left investors in a state of shock. But while Mr. Market still hasn’t sawed the HUI Index in half, the illusionist is likely gearing up for his greatest reveal. Case in point: while the Zig Zag Girl captivated audiences in the 1960s, the HUI Index’s zigzag correction leaves little to the imagination. And with the recent swoon a lot more than just smoke and mirrors, the HUI Index’s short-term optimism will likely vanish into thin air.

To explain, despite the profound drawdown, the HUI Index hasn’t been able to muster a typical relief rally. Moreover, with ominous signals increasing week by week, if history rhymes (as it tends to), the HUI Index will likely find medium-term support in the 100-to-150 range. For context, high-end 2020 support implies a move back to 150, while low-end 2015 support implies a move back to 100. And yes, it could really happen, even though such predictions seem unthinkable.

Please see below:

Furthermore, the underperformance of gold stocks relative to gold is also worthy of attention. With the junior miners often performing the worst during medium-term drawdowns, short positions in the GDXJ ETF will likely offer the best risk-reward ratio. To that point, if you held firm in 2008 and 2013 and maintained your short positions, you almost certainly realized substantial profits. And while there are instances when it’s wise to exit one’s short positions, the prospect of missing out on the forthcoming slide makes it quite risky.

To explain, I warned that the recent plunge was weeks in the making:

I wrote the following about the week beginning on May 24:

What happened three weeks ago was that gold rallied by almost $30 ($28.60) and at the same time, the HUI – a flagship proxy for gold stocks… Declined by 1.37. In other words, gold stocks completely ignored gold’s gains. That shows exceptional weakness on the weekly basis and is a very bearish sign for the following weeks.

Thus, while the HUI Index remains steady for the time being, back in 2008, the ominous underperformance signaled that trouble was ahead. To explain, right before the huge slide in late September and early October, gold was still moving to new intraday highs; the HUI Index was ignoring that, and then it declined despite gold’s rally. However, it was also the case that the general stock market suffered materially. If stocks hadn’t declined back then so profoundly, gold stocks’ underperformance relative to gold would have likely been present but more moderate.

Nonetheless, the HUI Index’s bearish head & shoulders pattern is extremely concerning. When the HUI Index retraced a bit more than 61.8% of its downswing in 2008 and in between 50% and 61.8% of its downswing in 2012 before eventually rolling over, in both (2008 and 2012) cases, the final top – the right shoulder – formed close to the price where the left shoulder topped. And in early 2020, the left shoulder topped at 303.02. Thus, three of the biggest declines in the mining stocks (I’m using the HUI Index as a proxy here), all started with broad, multi-month head-and-shoulders patterns. And in all three cases, the size of the declines exceeded the size of the head of the pattern.

In addition, when the HUI Index peaked on Sep. 21, 2012, that was just the initial high in gold. At that time, the S&P 500 was moving back and forth with lower highs. And what was the eventual climax? Well, gold made a new high before peaking on Oct. 5. In conjunction, the S&P 500 almost (!) moved to new highs, and despite the bullish tailwinds from both parties, the HUI Index didn’t reach new heights. The bottom line? The similarity to how the final counter-trend rally ended in 2012 (and to a smaller extent in 2008) remains uncanny.

As a result, we’re confronted with two bearish scenarios:

1. If things develop as they did in 2000 and 2012-2013, gold stocks are likely to bottom close to their early-2020 high.
2. If things develop like in 2008 (which might be the case, given the extremely high participation of the investment public in the stock market and other markets), gold stocks could re-test (or break slightly below) their 2016 low.

Keep in mind though: scenario #2 most likely requires equities to participate. In 2008 and 2020, sharp drawdowns in the HUI Index coincided with significant drawdowns of the S&P 500. However, with the Fed turning hawkish and investors extremely allergic to higher interest rates, the likelihood of a three-peat remains relatively high.

If we turn our attention to the GDX ETF, lower highs and lower lows have become mainstays of the senior miners’ recent performance. Moreover, while the GDX ETF’s swift drawdown occurred on significant volume, the recent bounce hasn’t garnered much optimism. As a result, we’re likely witnessing a corrective upswing within a medium-term downtrend.

Please see below:

Finally, comparing the current price action to the behavior that we witnessed in 2012, back then, the GDX ETF corrected back to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and then continued to make lower highs before eventually rolling over. And today, the senior miners are displaying similar weakness. Gold stocks are declining even while correcting, and the lack of meaningful upswings signals that the current environment is very bearish.

In conclusion, while gold, silver, and mining stocks will attempt to pull rabbits out of their hats, the bunnies’ bounce will likely fade over the medium term. Moreover, with the precious metals searching for a magic bullet that likely doesn’t exist, another disappointment could leave investors without an ace in the hole. The bottom line? While gold, silver, and mining stocks will likely dazzle the crowd in the years to come, their wizardry could resemble black magic in the coming months.

What Links Stocks and Miners?

With the MACD indicator recording an epic sell signal, the extreme reading can only be rivaled by the peak of the dot-com bubble.

To explain, I wrote previously:

While history might not repeat itself, though it does rhyme, those who insist on ignoring it are doomed to repeat it. And there’s practically only one situation from more than the past four decades that is similar to what we see right now.

It’s the early 2000s when the tech stock bubble burst. It’s practically the only time when the tech stocks were after a similarly huge rally. It’s also the only time when the weekly MACD soared to so high levels (we already saw the critical sell signal from it). It’s also the only comparable case with regard to the breakout above the rising blue trend channel. The previous move above it was immediately followed by a pullback to the 200-week moving average, and then the final – most volatile – part of the rally started. It ended on significant volume when the MACD flashed the sell signal. Again, we’re already after this point.

The recent attempt to break to new highs that failed seems to have been the final cherry on the bearish cake.

Why should I – the precious metals investor – care?

Because of what happened in the XAU Index (a proxy for gold stocks and silver stocks) shortly after the tech stock bubble burst last time.

What happened was that the mining stocks declined for about three months after the NASDAQ topped, and then they formed their final bottom that started the truly epic rally. And just like it was the case over 20 years ago, mining stocks topped several months before the tech stocks.

Mistaking the current situation for the true bottom is something that is likely to make a huge difference in one’s bottom line. After all, the ability to buy something about twice as cheap is practically equal to selling the same thing at twice the price. Or it’s like making money on the same epic upswing twice instead of “just” once.

And why am I writing about “half” and “twice”? Because… I’m being slightly conservative, and I assume that the history is about to rhyme once again as it very often does (despite seemingly different circumstances in the world). The XAU Index declined from its 1999 high of 92.72 to 41.61 – it erased 55.12% of its price.

The most recent medium-term high in the GDX ETF (another proxy for mining stocks) was at about $45. Half of that is $22.5, so a move to this level would be quite in tune with what we saw recently.

And the thing is that based on this week’s slide in the NASDAQ that followed the weekly reversal and the invalidation, it seems that this slide lower has already begun.

“Wait, you said something about three months?”

Yes, that’s approximately how long we had to wait for the final buying opportunity in the mining stocks to present itself based on the stock market top.

The reason is that after the 1929 top, gold miners declined for about three months after the general stock market started to slide. We also saw some confirmations of this theory based on the analogy to 2008. Consequently, we might see the next major bottom – and the epic buying opportunity in the mining stocks – about three months after the general stock market tops. The NASDAQ might have already topped, so we’re waiting for the S&P 500 to confirm the change in the trend.

The bottom line?

New lows are likely to complete the GDX ETF’s bearish H&S pattern and set the stage for an even larger medium-term decline. And if the projection proves prescient, medium-term support (or perhaps even the long-term one) will likely emerge at roughly $21.

But why ~$21?

1. The target aligns perfectly with the signals from the GDX ETF’s 2020 rising wedge pattern. You can see it in the left part of the above chart. The size of the move that follows a breakout or breakdown from the pattern (breakdown in this case) is likely to be equal (or greater than) the height of the wedge. That’s what the red dashed line marks.
2. The broad head-and-shoulders pattern with the horizontal neckline at about $31 points to the $21 level as the likely target.

As for the GDXJ ETF (our primary short proxy), the junior miners are eliciting the same bearish signals. Despite recording a tepid rally last week, the upswing barely moved the needle and the strength occurred on extremely underwhelming volume.

Please see below:

Furthermore, the four-hour GDXJ ETF has barely recouped its previous lows (again, on low volume), and it’s likely only a matter of time before the junior miners reveal their bearish colors.

Please see below:

The 4-hour chart of the GDXJ shows that while there was an intraday move back to the previous lows, the ETF was unable to close the day back above them. The breakdown was verified, not invalidated.

Even more ominous, the GDXJ ETF remains a significant underperformer of the GDX ETF. Despite sanguine sentiment and a strong stock market creating the perfect backdrop for the junior miners, the GDXJ ETF hasn’t lived up to the hype. To that point, it’s important to remember that small fakeouts in the juniors to seniors ratio often occur right before medium-term tops. Why? Because juniors tend to catch up with seniors, somewhat similarly to silver.

In addition, once one realizes that GDXJ is more correlated with the general stock market than GDX is, GDXJ should be showing strength here, and it isn’t. If stocks don’t decline, GDXJ is likely to underperform by just a bit, but when (not if) stocks slide, GDXJ is likely to plunge visibly more than GDX.

Expanding on that point, the GDXJ/GDX ratio has been declining since the beginning of the year, which is remarkable because the general stock market hasn’t plunged yet. However, if the S&P 500 proceeds to decline, the junior miners will likely underperform the senior miners. As a result, the GDXJ ETF has a lot more room to fall than the GDX ETF.

Please see below:

Why haven’t the juniors been soaring relative to senior mining stocks? What makes them so special (and weak) right now? In my opinion, it’s the fact that we now – unlike at any other time in the past – have an asset class that seems similarly appealing to the investment public. Not to everyone, but to some. And this “some” is enough for juniors to underperform.

Instead of speculating on an individual junior miner making a killing after striking gold or silver in some extremely rich deposit, it’s now easier than ever to get the same kind of thrill by buying… an altcoin (like Dogecoin or something else). In fact, people themselves can engage in “mining” these coins. And just like bitcoin seems similar to gold to many (especially the younger generation) investors, altcoins might serve as the “junior mining stocks” of the electronic future. At least they might be perceived as such by some.

Consequently, a part of the demand for juniors was not based on the “sympathy” toward the precious metals market, but rather on the emotional thrill (striking gold) combined with the anti-establishment tendencies (gold and silver are the anti- metals, but cryptocurrencies are anti-establishment in their own way). And since everyone and their brother seem to be talking about how much this or that altcoin has gained recently, it’s easy to see why some people jumped on that bandwagon instead of investing in junior miners.

This tendency is not likely to go away in the near term, so it seems that we have yet another reason to think that the GDXJ ETF is going to move much lower in the following months – declining more than the GDX ETF. The above + gold’s decline + stocks’ decline is truly an extremely bearish combination, in my view.

So, how low could the GDXJ ETF go?

Well, absent an equity rout, the juniors could form an interim bottom in the $34 to $36 range. Conversely, if stocks show strength, juniors could form the interim bottom higher, close to the $42.5 level. For context, the above-mentioned ranges coincide with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels and the GDXJ ETF’s previous highs (including the late-March/early-April high in case of the lower target area). Thus, the S&P 500 will likely need to roll over for the weakness to persist beyond these levels.

In addition, I warned on Jun. 1 that the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio’s invalidation of the breakdown below its rising support line (which became resistance) would be short-lived.

I wrote:

[The invalidation] doesn’t outweigh the myriad of other indicators – both technical and fundamental – that signal further weakness. In other words, the ratio should move back below its rising support/resistance line shortly.

And going from “maybe” to “likely” to “happened” once again, the HUI Index/S&P 500 ratio is now back in the bearish zone. Moreover, with the breakdown now glaringly obvious, the ratio is also approaching its 2020 lows.

Please see below:

On top of that, the countertrend upswing actually mirrored the behavior that we witnessed in 2018. If you analyze the left side of the chart, you can see that the ratio flirted with its rising support line before eventually rolling over. And with the current price action looking eerily similar, the ratio’s final act could be just as painful.

For more context:

When the ratio presented on the above chart above is rising, it means that the HUI Index is outperforming the S&P 500. When the line above is falling, it means that the S&P 500 is outperforming the HUI Index.

The target for the ratio based on this formation is at about 0.05 (slightly above it). Consequently, if the S&P 500 doesn’t decline, the ratio at 0.05 would imply the HUI Index at about 196. However, if the S&P 500 declined to about 3,200 or so (its late-2020 lows) and the ratio moved to about 0.05, it would imply the HUI Index at about 160 – very close to its 2020 lows.

All in all, the implications of mining stocks’ relative performance to gold and the general stock market are currently bearish.

But if we’re headed for a GDX ETF cliff, how far could we fall?

Well, there are three reasons why the GDX ETF might form an interim bottom at roughly ~$27.50 (assuming no big decline in the general stock market):

1. The GDX ETF previously bottomed at the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels. And with the 61.8% level next in line, the GDX ETF is likely to garner similar support.
2. The GDX ETFs late-March 2020 high should also elicit buying pressure.
3. If we copy the magnitude of the late-February/early-March decline and add it to the early-March bottom, it corresponds with the GDX ETF bottoming at roughly $27.50.

Keep in mind though: if the stock market plunges, all bets are off. Why so? Well, because when the S&P 500 plunged in March 2020, the GDX ETF moved from $29.67 to below $17 in less than two weeks. As a result, U.S. equities have the potential to make the miners’ forthcoming swoon all the more painful.

As another reliable indicator (in addition to the myriads of signals coming not only from mining stocks, but from gold, silver, USD Index, stocks, their ratios, and many fundamental observations) the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index ($BPGDM) isn’t at levels that trigger a major reversal. The Index is now at 53. However, far from a medium-term bottom, the latest reading is still more than 43 points above the 2016 and 2020 lows.

Back in 2016 (after the top), and in March 2020, the buying opportunity didn’t present itself until the $BPGDM was below 10.

Thus, with the sentiment still relatively elevated, it will take more negativity for the index to find the true bottom.

The excessive bullishness was present at the 2016 top as well, and it didn’t cause the situation to be any less bearish in reality. All markets periodically get ahead of themselves regardless of how bullish the long-term outlook really is. Then, they correct. If the upswing was significant, the correction is also quite often significant.

Please note that back in 2016, there was an additional quick upswing before the slide, and this additional upswing had caused the $BPGDM to move up once again for a few days. It then declined once again. We saw something similar also in the middle of 2020. In this case, the move up took the index once again to the 100 level, while in 2016 this wasn’t the case. But still, the similarity remains present.

Back in 2016, when we saw this phenomenon, it was already after the top and right before the big decline. Based on the decline from above 350 to below 280, we know that a significant decline is definitely taking place.

But has it already run its course?

Well, in 2016 and early 2020, the HUI Index continued to move lower until it declined below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The emphasis goes on “below” as this retracement might not trigger the final bottom. Case in point: back in 2020, the HUI Index undershot the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and gave back nearly all of its prior rally. And using the 2016 and 2020 analogues as anchors, this time around, the HUI Index is likely to decline below 231. In addition, if the current decline is more similar to the 2020 one, the HUI Index could move to 150 or so, especially if it coincides with a significant drawdown of U.S. equities.

With all of that said: how will we know when a medium-term buying opportunity presents itself?

I view price target levels as guidelines and the same goes for the Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index (below 10), but the final confirmation will likely be gold’s strength against the ongoing USDX rally. At many vital bottoms in gold, that’s exactly what happened, including the March bottom.

Silver

With silver’s long-term cycle implying a surge above $75 (and even $100) over the next several years, the white metal’s secular uptrend remains intact. However, with an epic collapse likely to precede the forthcoming Renaissance, volatility presents us with ample opportunities.

Case in point: silver cycles last roughly two years and turning points culminate with extreme volatility in both directions. Sometimes ferocious rallies follow, and other times the white metal falls off a cliff. In the here and now, with silver approaching the end of its current cycle, a supreme climax could be around the corner. Moreover, when we combine the myriad of technical and fundamental indicators signaling the same outcome, the white metal could get cut in half over the next few months.

Please see below:

As further evidence, with silver outperforming gold, the behavior often serves as a prerequisite to significant tops. As a result, the white metal’s outward strength on Friday (silver rallied by $0.40 while gold gained only $6.50) has extremely bearish undertones and the 2012 analogue remains the most likely predictor of silver’s medium-term path.

To explain, I wrote on Jun. 18:

Back in 2012, silver corrected more than 61.8% of its previous decline. However, since it’s been repeating its pattern from 2019-2020 (as marked above), it seems that focusing on the analogy to the first correction that we saw in March 2021 might be more appropriate. And that’s when silver corrected between 38.2% and 50% of the decline before sliding. Consequently, silver’s short-term upside target might be between $27 and $28. This is based on the assumption that it has already bottomed, though, which might not be the case, based on what we are seeing in the case of volume.

As previously, I marked the previous volume spikes (seen during declines) with dotted, vertical lines. I marked the first (!) of the volume spikes in case there were more of them. In 3 out of 5 cases, silver continued to decline in the near term, and in 2 out of 5 cases it was a short-term bottom. Consequently, just because we saw a move on huge volume, it doesn’t mean that the bottom is in.

For more context on silver’s self-similarity patterns, I wrote previously:

If you analyze the left side of the chart above, you can see that silver moved back and forth before breaking toward its September highs. However, after failing to complete the milestone, the white metal eventually collapsed. As a result, with the pattern on the right side of the chart eerily similar, investors’ optimism has occurred at what’s likely the worst possible time.

To that point, with its current behavior also mirroring 2008 – where silver fell below and then rallied back above its 50-day MA before plunging – the white metal remains on a journey of self-destruction.

If we zoom in on the white metal’s price action in 2008, you can see that an immaterial bounce also occurred right before silver fell off a cliff.

The final corrective upswing of early 2020 took place in very late February and early March, while the two – normal – tops that created the red-line rectangle formed more or less at the turn of the year and in late February. This year, it’s all taking place at almost exactly the same time of the year.

Let’s be realistic - so far, the analogy (to what happened in 2019 and 2020) might seem too unclear to be viewed as a reliable base for making a silver forecast.

But what if… What if there was a very similar pattern in the past that also preceded a massive decline? This would greatly increase the reliability of the above self-similarity.

There was indeed such a pattern!

That’s what silver did in 2008 before it declined.

The August 2007 – March 2008 rally (please note the interim top in November 2007 that was followed by a zigzag decline, more or less in the middle of the rally) is similar to the March 2020 – August 2021 rally (please note the interim top in June 2020 that was followed by a zigzag pattern, more or less in the middle of the rally).

Afterwards, we saw a double top in both cases that was followed by a sizable slide. Then silver formed a specific U-shaped broad top, where the final top was below the initial one (exception: in this case the forum-based rally took silver slightly above the previous high, but due to the specific / random nature of the move, it “doesn’t count” as something that invalidates the analogy).

After the top, silver declined, and the final corrective upswing took place approximately between the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Please note that in both previous (2008 and 2020) cases silver then truly plunged, and it kept on declining until it moved below the 2.618 Fibonacci extension based on the initial downswing. The above charts illustrate that by showing the first decline at the 38.2% retracement (1 / 0.382 = approximately 2.618). Applying the same to the current situation (the initial decline took silver from below $30 to below $24) provides us with the minimum decline target at about $13.50. Will silver really decline as low? In my view, it’s imperative to watch other markets for indications as they might have more reliable targets (for instance gold), but I wouldn’t say that this target (or lower price levels) is out of the question. Of course, that’s just on a temporary basis – silver will likely soar in the following months and years (after this decline).

Highlighting the effect of WallStreetBets’ #SilverSqueeze, the SLV ETF’s volume spikes in 2020/2021 were nearly identical to the surges that we witnessed ~10 years ago. If you analyze the chart below, you can see that the massive inflows at the end of 2012 were not the beginning of a medium-term upswing. In fact, they coincided with silver’s final bounce before the white metal suffered a major decline.

Please see below:

If you analyze the volume spikes at the bottom of the chart, 2021 and 2011 are a splitting image. To explain, in 2011, an initial abnormal spike in volume was followed by a second parabolic surge. However, not long after, silver’s bear market began.

SLV-volume-wise, there's only one similar situation from the past - the 2011 top. This is a very bearish analogy as higher prices of the white metal were not seen since that time, but the analogy gets even more bearish. The reason is the "initial warning" volume spike in this ETF. It took place a few months before SLV formed its final top, and we saw the same thing also a few months ago, when silver formed its initial 2020 top.

In addition, the SLV ETF is also following the 2011 playbook. Back then, the SLV ETF recorded an initial spike in price and volume and followed that up with a parabolic spike in both that marked THE top. This was then followed by one last spike in price on relatively average volume. To that point, if you focus your attention on the right side of the chart above, you can see that an identical formation is present. After an initial spike in price and volume, the big one occurred in early 2021. And with silver’s latest rally occurring on relatively average volume, the price action looks a lot like the calm before the 2011 storm.

That third average-volume top in 2011 was the final chance to sell silver above $40 and perhaps to short it. It could be the same right now, but with regard to the $25 price level. Of course, silver is likely to soar well above $50 and $100 in the following years, but currently, the analogy points to lower prices in the medium term.

The history may not repeat itself to the letter, but it tends to be quite similar. And the more two situations are alike, the more likely it is for the follow-up action to be similar as well. And in this case, the implications for the silver price forecast are clearly bearish.

Based on the above chart, it seems that silver is likely to move well above its 2011 highs, but it’s unlikely to do it without another sizable downswing first.

Similarly, silver’s inverse price action also has bearish implications. Nearly identical to the inverted formation that emerged from 2006 to 2009, today’s chart looks eerily similar to its predecessor.

While it’s more of a wild card, the above pattern shows that silver’s 2020 top plots are nearly identical to the inverse of the 2006-2009 performance. I copied the 2006 – 2009 performance right below the regular price movement and inverted it. I also copied this inverted pattern to the last few years.

The similarity is quite significant. And whenever a given pattern has been repeated, the odds are that it could also repeat in the not-too-distant future. Of course, there is no guarantee for that, but once the same market has reacted in a certain way to a specific greed/fear combination, it can just as well do it again. And these similarity-based techniques work quite often. So, while it’s not strong enough to be viewed as a price-path-discovery technique on its own, it should make one consider some scenarios more closely. In particular, this means that the declines in the prices of silver, gold, and mining stocks could be bigger and take longer than it seems based on other charts and techniques.

The above is also in tune with the implications of the sell signal from the MACD indicator on the monthly gold chart.

The only thing that comes to my mind which could – realistically – trigger such a prolonged decline would be a major drop in the general stock market. Given what I wrote above, the latter is quite possible, so I’ll be on the lookout for confirmations and invalidations of this scenario.

If history rhymes, silver could be in for a profound decline over the next few months (beyond my initial target). Moreover, the development would increase the duration of the precious metals’ bear market (also beyond my initial forecast).

After all, gold did invalidate its long-term breakout above the 2011 highs, and the way gold reacted to a small upswing in the USD Index was truly profound…

Turning to cross-asset correlations, gold, silver and the HUI Index’s 30-day correlations remain stable. With the PMs exhibiting negative relationships with the U.S. dollar, their short-term behavior is similar to what we should expect over the medium term. More importantly, though, with the USD Index beginning to resemble a caged animal, once the greenback is released back into the wild, the PMs are likely to be its first meal.

For more context, I wrote previously:

Since gold, silver, and mining stocks have been strongly negatively correlated with the USD Index in the medium term, it seems likely that they will be negatively affected by the upcoming sizable USDX upswing.

…Until we see the day where gold reverses or soars despite the U.S. currency’s rally.

If that happens with gold at about $1,350 - $1,500, we’ll have a very good chance that this was the final bottom. If it doesn’t happen at that time, or gold continues to slide despite USD’s pause or decline, we’ll know that gold has further to fall.

Naturally, we’ll keep you – our subscribers – informed.

Overview of the Upcoming Part of the Decline

1. The barely visible corrective upswing in gold might already be over, and another huge decline is likely just around the corner.
2. After miners slide in a meaningful and volatile way, but silver doesn’t (and it just declines moderately), I plan to switch from short positions in miners to short positions in silver. At this time, it’s too early to say at what price levels this would take place – perhaps with gold close to $1,600. I plan to exit those short positions when gold shows substantial strength relative to the USD Index, while the latter is still rallying. This might take place with gold close to $1,350 - $1,500 and the entire decline (from above $1,900 to about $1,475) would be likely to take place within 6-20 weeks, and I would expect silver to fall the hardest in the final part of the move. This moment (when gold performs very strongly against the rallying USD and miners are strong relative to gold – after gold has already declined substantially) is likely to be the best entry point for long-term investments, in my view. This might also happen with gold close to $1,475, but it’s too early to say with certainty at this time.
3. As a confirmation for the above, I will use the (upcoming or perhaps we have already seen it?) top in the general stock market as the starting point for the three-month countdown. The reason is that after the 1929 top, gold miners declined for about three months after the general stock market started to slide. We also saw some confirmations of this theory based on the analogy to 2008. All in all, the precious metals sector would be likely to bottom about three months after the general stock market tops.
4. The above is based on the information available today, and it might change in the following days/weeks.

Please note that the above timing details are relatively broad and “for general overview only” – so that you know more or less what I think and how volatile I think the moves are likely to be – on an approximate basis. These time targets are not binding or clear enough for me to think that they should be used for purchasing options, warrants or similar instruments.

Summary

To summarize, even though gold could still move somewhat higher in the near term, it seems that having a short position in the junior mining stocks is much more justified from the risk-to-reward point of view than having a long one in any part of the precious metals market. Gold miners’ underperformance along with a self-similar pattern in the USD Index (pointing to the breather being over) and the length of the “bottoming” process in gold that no longer resembles a bottom (but rather a pause within a slide) all make the bearish outlook justified from the risk-to-reward point of view.

After the sell-off (that takes gold to about $1,350 - $1,500), I expect the precious metals to rally significantly. The final part of the decline might take as little as 1-5 weeks, so it's important to stay alert to any changes.

Most importantly, please stay healthy and safe. We made a lot of money last March and this March, and it seems that we’re about to make much more on the upcoming decline, but you have to be healthy to enjoy the results.

As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - informed.

By the way, we’re currently providing you with a possibility to extend your subscription by a year, two years or even three years with a special 20% discount. This discount can be applied right away, without the need to wait for your next renewal – if you choose to secure your premium access and complete the payment upfront. The boring time in the PMs is definitely over and the time to pay close attention to the market is here. Naturally, it’s your capital, and the choice is up to you, but it seems that it might be a good idea to secure more premium access now, while saving 20% at the same time. Our support team will be happy to assist you in the above-described upgrade at preferential terms – if you’d like to proceed, please contact us.

To summarize:

Short-term outlook for the precious metals sector (our opinion on the next 1-6 weeks): Bearish

Medium-term outlook for the precious metals sector (our opinion for the period between 1.5 and 6 months): Bearish initially, then possibly Bullish

Long-term outlook for the precious metals sector (our opinion for the period between 6 and 24 months from now): Bullish

Very long-term outlook for the precious metals sector (our opinion for the period starting 2 years from now): Bullish

As a reminder, Gold Investment Updates are posted approximately once per week. We are usually posting them on Monday, but we can’t promise that it will be the case each week.

Our preferred ways to invest in and to trade gold along with the reasoning can be found in the how to buy gold section. Additionally, our preferred ETFs and ETNs can be found in our Gold & Silver ETF Ranking.

Moreover, Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are posted before or on each trading day (we usually post them before the opening bell, but we don’t promise doing that each day). If there’s anything urgent, we will send you an additional small alert before posting the main one.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief