gold market - investment & analysis

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What Drives The Price of Gold? Part 4: Bond Market, Credit Spreads, Yield Curve and Financial Sector’s Strength

November 4, 2015, 10:48 AM Arkadiusz Sieroń , PhD

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We continue our series about drivers of the price of gold. We have already explained hedging against inflation, seeking for safe-havens against financial crises or portfolio diversification. We have also examined the relationship between gold and mining production, jewelry, industrial or central banks’ demand, as well as the geopolitical concernsthe U.S. dollar and interest rates. In the September edition of the Market Overview we analyzed the relationship between gold and changes in the money supply, public debt, oil prices, and stock market dynamics. We showed that the observed correlation between the shiny metal and these factors often constitutes a co-movement in response to the same macroeconomic factors rather than causal relationships. The list of possible determinants of the price of gold goes on, so in November we will focus on the relationship between the bond market and the yellow metal. We will analyze whether U.S. Treasury bonds could substitute for gold, and whether changes in credit spreads, indicating change of risk appetite – and Treasury yield curve drive the price of gold. We will also examine the relationship between the financial sector’s strength, representing the level of perceived systemic risk, and the price of gold. Analysts and investors often overlook the real links between these factors and gold, so in the November Market Overview we will show that including these variables into analysis can help fully understand the gold market. Since gold is the reciprocal of confidence in the Fed and the U.S. economy, it is worth analyzing the measures of confidence in them.

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