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In June, the Fed hiked the federal funds rate for the seventh time in this tightening cycle. A lot of people worry that the Fed’s unwind of its balance sheet combined with the higher interest rates and the stronger dollar will bring the next catastrophe to the world. Italian yields have already spiked, while Argentina and Turkey face economic crises.
In this edition of the Market Overview, we will dig into this topic. We will examine in detail the recent monetary policy decisions undertaken by the Fed and the ECB, the two systematically important central banks. After the ECB decision to stop its bond-purchase program in December 2018, there will be no quantitative easing on both sides of the pond. We will analyze what it means for the gold market. Given the fears that the Fed’s tightening will cause the next crisis, we will examine this hypothesis in the context of the gold market, focusing on the emerging countries, which are especially sensitive to changes in the Fed’s stance.
Last but not least, we will go for another trip to Italy, to reflect on the possible implications of the Italian turmoil on the euro and the gold market. And we will try to establish whether the next crisis in the Eurozone is coming.