On Tuesday, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton won the New York primary election. What does it mean for the gold market?
Both frontrunners in the race to be the U.S. presidential candidates for the Republican and Democratic parties won easily in New York. It is an important victory, because New York is a crucial primary with a high number of delegates. Therefore, both Clinton and Trump moved significantly closer to their party’s nominations.
Clinton won unexpectedly high, taking 139 out of 247 delegates. It is a severe blow to senator Bernie Sanders who may lose his momentum. Clinton has now 1,930 delegates including 502 superdelegates (she needs 2,383 to get nomination), while Sanders has only 1,189, including 38 superdelegates. Clinton's victory is bad news for gold, because Sanders is a more radical statist, so his nomination or presidency would be worse for the economy and better for the gold in the long run.
Trump came back after losing a few earlier primaries and he significantly improved his chances of winning the Republican nomination. He took 89 of the 95 delegates. Trump has now 845 delegates, while Ted Cruz has 559 and Kasich – 148. He needs 1,237 to win the nomination and avoid contested convention. Trump’s victory in New York should increase his momentum, which should be positive for gold, as higher odds of Trump winning the nomination and elections should increase the safe-haven demand for gold, since markets like stability and predictability, while Trump is outside the establishment, with obscure economic views and anti-systemic beliefs, so nobody knows what to expect of him.
To sum up, after the New York primary, it is likely going to be Trump vs. Clinton. The latter leads the polls, but it may change, especially that people are fed up with the political establishment. If the odds for Trump increase, some nervous investors could pile into gold as an insurance policy against political decisions of a new president.
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Disclaimer: Please note that the aim of the above analysis is to discuss the likely long-term impact of the featured phenomenon on the price of gold and this analysis does not indicate (nor does it aim to do so) whether gold is likely to move higher or lower in the short- or medium term. In order to determine the latter, many additional factors need to be considered (i.e. sentiment, chart patterns, cycles, indicators, ratios, self-similar patterns and more) and we are taking them into account (and discussing the short- and medium-term outlook) in our trading alerts.
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Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Gold News Monitor and Market Overview Editor
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