The pre-market signals were not invalidated during the session. Conversely, gold and silver moved even lower as the USD Index moved higher. The volume, on which mining stocks are declining today is already high, even though the session is far from being over.
Gold and silver moved to their previous lows, which could trigger a reversal, but based on their performance relative to major currencies, it seems that lower prices are likely to be seen anyway and a bigger upswing is no longer likely.
Consequently, since he short-term outlook deteriorated further during today's session, it seems that the huge decline that we have been expecting to see has already started without a preceding, significant upswing. As a result, it seems that moving back into the short positions, with a major decline in mind is currently justified from the risk to reward point of view. The initial price targets and stop-loss levels are as they were with our previous short position.
Trading capital (supplementary part of the portfolio; our opinion): Short positions (100% of the full position) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following stop-loss orders and initial target price levels / profit-take orders:
- Gold: exit-profit-take level: $1,063; stop-loss: $1,317; initial target price for the DGLD ETN: $81.88; stop-loss for the DGLD ETN $44.57
- Silver: initial target price: $13.12; stop-loss: $19.22; initial target price for the DSLV ETN: $46.18; stop-loss for the DSLV ETN $17.93
- Mining stocks (price levels for the GDX ETF): initial target price: $9.34; stop-loss: $26.34; initial target price for the DUST ETF: $143.56; stop-loss for the DUST ETF $21.37
In case one wants to bet on junior mining stocks' prices (we do not suggest doing so – we think senior mining stocks are more predictable in the case of short-term trades – if one wants to do it anyway, we provide the details), here are the stop-loss details and initial target prices:
- GDXJ ETF: initial target price: $14.13; stop-loss: $45.31
- JDST ETF: initial target price: $417.04; stop-loss: $43.12
Long-term capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): No positions (in other words: cash)
Insurance capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): Full position
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager
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