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We are normally not providing alerts during the days when the markets are closed in the U.S., but since there were major moves during Friday’s session, we thought that you would appreciate an alert sooner than according to our regular schedule.

Gold moved to new highs on Friday and mining stocks rallied substantially as well. The real action, however, took place in the USD Index. The latter managed to close the week below its 2017 low and that was the lowest weekly close in the last 3 years. The USD seems to be doomed – is gold about to soar?

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In yesterday’s alert, we wrote that gold was vulnerable to the movement in the USD Index and a short-term move higher could be seen. The USD Index has declined and gold has indeed moved higher. Silver and miners didn’t really follow. What can we infer from the above combination of signs?

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The USD Index moved sharply lower yesterday and before it moved back up, it caused gold’s price to move above the previous 2018 high. What can we infer from this specific action in the gold-USD link?

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The precious metals sector moved higher in the first days of this year, but based on yesterday’s decline and the current price levels, 2018 is already a down year for silver and mining stocks. Gold is almost flat. This is a subtle clue that the rally may have already ran its course. The confirmation comes from what happened yesterday. Miners continued their decline, invalidating the previous breakout, while gold finally joined the rest of the sector and started its own decline as well. Is the rally indeed over?

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