The situation in the precious metals market and in the USD Index evolves in tune with what we have described previously. Gold and miners are still moving higher, silver is still underperforming, and USD is still suffering likely due to its cyclical turning point. How high can gold go before the short-term trend reverses?

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In yesterday’s alert we wrote that the USD Index had probably not declined enough based on the cyclical turning point and that this was something that could trigger higher precious metals prices. We have indeed seen lower USD values and higher precious metals prices. Will these move continue for much longer? You'll find details in today's alert.

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Precious metals paused yesterday, but that doesn’t mean that nothing happened. As far as other markets are concerned, we saw much more than on precious metals charts themselves. Both the USD Index and the general stock market declined (the latter significantly) on Monday and gold and silver investors expected their favorite metals to appreciate, which made sense in these circumstances. But metals didn't react. This specific relative performance, combined with the long-term signal that we featured in greater detail yesterday, can tell a lot about the next price moves for metals. That's something you might already be interested in and something that you most likely should know.

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Gold finally rallied on Friday after a few weeks of declines. The volume in the GLD ETF was not low, but not huge either, so we don't have a strong confirmation here. Gold’s close on Friday was also the third close above the previously-broken declining resistance line, which means that the breakout was confirmed. Mining stocks moved only slightly higher and on low volume, which is a bearish sign.

With contradictory signals from gold and miners, gold and silver investors would need some kind of reliable confirmation to determine the next probable move. Luckily, we saw a a strong, long-term signal that has been followed by a certain type of action in the whole precious metals sector 6 out of 8 times in the past, and in some of these cases very dramatic changes were seen. Can a long-term signal be that significant on a short-term basis? It seems that in this case, it can - and it can affect you.

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Theoretically, nothing happened yesterday. Gold, silver and mining stocks declined, just as they were likely to, and the USD Index moved higher, just as it was likely to. However, the tiny details make yesterday's session very significant. Should you be concerned? Probably yes.

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