On May 1st, we knew that the precious metals sector was starting a 2-week rally based on cyclical turning points, apex-based reversals, and True Seasonality for May. The rally is over, the profits cashed in… And growing once again thanks to the new short position. What’s in store for the rest of the month and the next few ones? Something epic.

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At first sight nothing really changed yesterday. The USD Index closed relatively unchanged, gold moved down just a little and while silver’s decline was more visible, one could view this move as rather accidental as silver is known to be volatile at times. Yet, there are grave implications of yesterday’s session as what happened yesterday only appears insignificant on a stand-alone basis. When one views it in light of the factors that were and still are in play and checks how the USD and metals moved relative to each other, it becomes clear that the implications are major enough for one to change their trading position.

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Friday was the day when silver and mining stocks were likely to reverse based on their triangle-apex-based turning points and today is the day of gold’s apex-based reversal. Therefore, it seems likely that gold, silver and mining stocks are forming the final top for this short-term upswing, or that it is already in place. The problem with the reversal scenario is that the previous week was one big bearish reversal in the USD Index. Weekly reversals are significant and thus odds of a move lower in the USD increased substantially. This means more upside in metals and miners. What should one do with the profits from the current long position? It’s tempting to both keep and cash them and the answer is not easy. We provide our answer in today's alert.

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The first few days of this week were very boring for the precious metals investors. There were some additional signals as we saw how the PM sector reacted to the USD’s strength, but there were no changes in terms of the daily closing prices. This changed yesterday. Are PMs starting to really rally, or is this simply the final pop up before the short-term trend reverses?

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Nothing really changed in the precious metals market yesterday and it was yet another day when we saw this kind of performance. Seeing that nothing has happened in gold and silver for almost a week may make one think that this is going to continue for a long time. That’s very far from the truth. The price may have not changed much, but something else changed and the odds are that the days of low volatility are ending.

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