The tensions in Ukraine have increased due to the Russian plan to conduct a referendum as to whether Crimea should belong to Ukraine or Russia. How many voting’s has Putin lost? That’s not his specialty. Meanwhile, the U.S. is sending 12 F-16 fighter jets to Poland due to the decision to “extend the scope of the aviation detachment training”...

Based on the above, it seems that gold should be rallying on strong volume, well above its previous highs. Is it? No. It moved higher, but it did so on very low volume and stopped before reaching it’s recent high. How much does this change at the current market juncture?

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The tensions in Ukraine have either eased or not depending on your approach. They have eased in the way that the Russian troops are not moving further into the country, but they have not eased when you consider the fact that they have not left Crimea. The precious metals sector is not reacting with higher prices and this is a bearish sign on its own.

However, palladium and the commodities sector in general (the CCI Index) have broken above their declining resistance levels. Will these breakouts result in another big wave up for the precious metals sector? You'll find our take on the situation in today's alert.

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As you know, we had been expecting the tensions in Ukraine to cause a significant rally in gold (not necessarily in the rest of the precious metals sector). Not only wasn’t that the case on Monday – the rally indeed took place, but it was rather average, but gold managed to decline on Tuesday while there was no visible improvement in the situation in Ukraine and on the Crimea peninsula.

Does this mean that the rally is over? Read today's alert and find out.

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As we wrote yesterday, the most important thing that has been driving gold this week is not the technical picture, but the situation in Ukraine. The Russian invasion of Crimea and threat of war put pressure on stock indices around the world and caused gold to rally (there is rarely a time when we can really say what’s behind a given price move, but it seems that the situation in Ukraine is the main factor at this time).

However, the way gold, silver and mining stocks reacted on Monday - and the fact that the reaction was not identical - tells us something about the coming weeks. You'll find details in today's alert.

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There were several interesting developments in the gold, silver and U.S. dollar markets on Friday (and we discuss them in today's alert), but the most important events happened during the weekend. The Russian forces have seized Crimea and the tensions increase every minute. We hope that the situation will be resolved peacefully and quickly, but from the analytical point of view, the above changes a lot and our portfolio should reflect that. In today's alert we focus on the implications for the precious metals investors and traders.

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