Yesterday’s session was quite volatile, just as one might have expected it to be.It was the interest rate decision day in the US and the first of this week’s monetary authorities’ comments. It was volatile, but it did not result in any meaningful changes in gold or mining stocks. The only thing that was really affected was – once again – silver. Its strength was clear and since we saw it for yet another day in a row, it’s obvious that it means something. Is silver on a verge of a massive rally?

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Almost nothing happened on the precious metals market yesterday, or at least that may seem to be the case as the first sight. And that’s true if one doesn’t count the spike in GLD’s volume, but there was something else that actually should have caught one’s attention and it probably wasn’t the case for many gold traders. Silver stocks just broke to new monthly low. What does this tell us?

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In our previous analyses we wrote about silver’s outperformance as something bearish and we saw the latter once again yesterday. The difference, however, was that this time, the white metal’s upswing was accompanied by higher mining stock prices. The latter sometimes indicates the beginning of a rally, so the above might be viewed as a bullish invalidation of silver’s previous signals. Did the outlook really change yesterday?

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In the past several analyses, we emphasized the boring nature of the current situation in the precious metals market and its implications. Friday’s session took it to the extreme as virtually nothing happened during the session. At the first sight. Those, who look beyond the usually analyzed aspects, have noticed an important breakdown in one part of the precious metals market and they see that PMs are on a verge of making an even more profound breakthrough. Analogous breakthrough meant a critical and potentially lucrative move in the past… What are the PMs really telling us?

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We just saw another specific divergence on the precious metals market. Part thereof – silver – visibly rallied once again (especially on an intraday basis), while both key proxies for mining stocks – another important part of the PM sector – HUI Index and GDX ETF, were down. Investors wanting to check what’s really going on are looking at gold for guidance. They aren’t getting any, as gold didn’t really change (which seems bearish compared to silver’s rally), but at the same time, it’s above the declining trend channel, which may appear bullish. What should one make of all this?

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