The Euro Index broke decisively below the rising long-term support line (based on the 2012 and mid-2013 bottoms) and this is a major event not only for the currency itself, but also for the precious metals sector.

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Not much happened yesterday in terms of the daily closing prices, but the price/volume action and relative valuations give us subtle clues as far as the next move is concerned. In today's alert we discuss both.

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In the previous alert we commented on the changes that we saw in Thursday and Friday’s pre-market trading. In short, we viewed Thursday’s rally as an event-driven one-time jump that would likely be followed by the continuation of the previous trend, which is down. On Friday we saw a reversal in the case of silver, only a small one in the case of gold, and almost none at all in the case of mining stocks. Have the weekly closing prices changed anything?

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In our yesterday’s second alert we wrote that yesterday’s rally was quite likely to be a one-time event and that it didn’t change the overall trend, which remained down. The reason was that the rally was clearly event-driven and not a reflection of a change in the attitudes of investors and traders. Based on today’s pre-market decline, it seems that we were correct. What's next?

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