Gold started the month with an upswing, silver soared and… Silver stocks declined. Yes, you read that right. Big upswings can be bullish developments, but it’s definitely not true in all cases. For instance, in this case, one could say that while it’s true that gold moved higher, it failed to move to the late-March high, let alone break above it. Why is gold not moving decisively in any direction? What’s it waiting for? Was gold’s early-April rally just a late April fool’s joke?

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The precious metals market reversed and declined just as we’d been expecting it to and this year’s profits from the short positions have further increased. It seems that the best is yet to come, though.

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“Some things never change. Some things do.” You might be wondering why we are quoting one of the lines from the Matrix movie. The reason is because that’s exactly what we can say about the gold market and the price patterns in it. The thing that never changes is the fact that gold will always somehow react to the fundamental news, but the way it reacts will vary over time. Moreover, this quote could describe the situation with the current analogies and price patterns in gold, silver and mining stocks. Because of the trade-war-based rally, they changed, but something didn’t. The outlook that they imply.

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A new day, a new upswing and new important signals. Gold moved even closer to its previous highs, while silver and mining stocks moved higher as well. The HUI Index even managed to close at a new March high. What can we infer from the latter? Did the miners’ strength just invalidate the previous bearish signals?

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Gold soared by the end of the week. Miners’ didn’t – the HUI didn’t even move above the previous March highs. Silver’s performance was rather mixed, but closer to the one of miners than the one of gold. Why did gold rally? Why didn’t miners rally? How can the silver CoT numbers help in this case?

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