Gold and silver rallied today in pre-market trading by more than $20 and $0.30. At the same time, the USD Index plunged below 80. What was the likely reason for these price moves?

Quoting today's Oil Trading Alert: "The agreement was reached just a day before the deadline, which means that the U.S. will avoid a costly default on its debt and that lawmakers will be able to fully reopen the government. The Senate struck a deal to fund federal agencies at current spending levels through Jan. 15 and extend the country's debt ceiling through Feb. 7. A negotiating committee would be charged with devising plans for longer-term solutions."

So, the largely expected debt deal was made and the USD Index declined (and US stocks rallied). More debt will be allowed and more money will be created. What's next for gold? Will it rally now? A $20 rally is a significant event from the technical perspective - but just how much has the outlook changed for gold? You'll find answers to these questions in today's Market Alert.

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Miners (GDX) rallied yesterday and didn't even decline on an intraday basis before the end of the session - they closed at the session's highs. This creates a bullish candlestick pattern. Moreover, the HUI:gold ratio closed above its 2013 low, thus invalidating the breakdown below this critical level (also from the long-term perspective). Gold and silver rallied as well, but the volume was not that strong. The stock market, which used to be a big factor when it came to estimating metals' future price movements, declined yesterday. How much did actually change yesterday? Should you get fully back in the market with your long-term investments or is this just a pause and lower gold and silver prices are to follow? We explain the above and reply to these questions in today's Market Alert.

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The markets were trading on relatively low volume on Monday (Columbus Day), but we could still see one development that precious metals traders should not miss.

Please note that gold declined once again on Friday and the decline materialized on relatively high volume, which suggests that this is the true direction in which the market is currently moving. The HUI:gold ratio declined once again and the breakdown below the previous 2013 lows was just confirmed - yet another bearish sign.

Let's re-emphasize the True Seasonal patterns and their implications. We covered them briefly in the Oct. 1 Market Alert by writing the following:

"Gold usually declines in the first days of October (as USD strengthens), then moves back up and even rallies 1% above the Oct 1 price (close to Oct 10). Then it (…)."

The above was not a perfect prediction - gold formed its local high on Oct. 8, instead of Oct. 10 and it corrected by over 2% instead of 1%, but overall, the pattern played out more or less as the True Seasonals had suggested. There was a relatively small rally in early October and then a decline followed. On Oct. 14, we have gold below the price at which it started the month - again in tune with the True Seasonal pattern. What's next based on these patterns? Sign up, read today's Market Alert and find out!

We wrote one more thing about the True Seasonal patterns (regarding mining stocks), and as you can see, it also was quite close to the factual price moves:

"The performance of gold stocks is even more interesting. They usually decline about 3% in the first few days of October, then move back to where they were at the beginning of the month around the 10-th day of the month and then decline heavily (6% on average). Overall miners tend to underperform metals - confirming the bearish outlook." Again, the above was written 2 weeks ago. If you'd like to read the most up-to-date analysis that covers also the True Seasonal aspects, please sign up and read today's Market Alert.

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Gold declined once again on Friday and the decline materialized on relatively high volume, which suggests that this is the true direction in which the market is currently moving. The HUI:gold ratio declined once again and the breakdown below the previous 2013 lows was just confirmed - yet another bearish sign.

Let's re-emphasize the True Seasonal patterns and their implications. We covered them briefly in the Oct. 1 Market Alert by writing the following:

"Gold usually declines in the first days of October (as USD strengthens), then moves back up and even rallies 1% above the Oct 1 price (close to Oct 10). Then it (…)."

The above was not a perfect prediction - gold formed its local high on Oct. 8, instead of Oct. 10 and it corrected by over 2% instead of 1%, but overall, the pattern played out more or less as the True Seasonals had suggested. There was a relatively small rally in early October and then a decline followed. On Oct. 14, we have gold below the price at which it started the month - again in tune with the True Seasonal pattern. What's next based on these patterns? Sign up, read today's Market Alert and find out!

We wrote one more thing about the True Seasonal patterns (regarding mining stocks), and as you can see, it also was quite close to the factual price moves:

"The performance of gold stocks is even more interesting. They usually decline about 3% in the first few days of October, then move back to where they were at the beginning of the month around the 10-th day of the month and then decline heavily (6% on average). Overall miners tend to underperform metals - confirming the bearish outlook." Again, the above was written 2 weeks ago. If you'd like to read the most up-to-date analysis that covers also the True Seasonal aspects, please sign up and read today's Market Alert. 

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Bailouts, quantitative easing, money supply, inflation... We hear about financial wizardry every day. But will this change when Janet Yellen replaces Ben Bernanke? This week's Premium Update talks about a revolution that took place in central banking around the world after the "Lehman hit" in light of the following developments:

• significant short-term rally in the US Dollar Index
• response of precious metals to the USD Index, stocks and news about debt limit
• gold is trading very close to the short-term support and resistance levels
• correlations have turned upside-down in the short-term
• silver is just slightly above the 2008 high, which provides strong support

Inside, you’ll also find our comments on the Goldman Sachs’ recommendation to sell gold, as well your (our subscribers) questions answered.

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