Miners declined substantially once again yesterday even though gold didn't and silver actually rallied. Was that the final part of this short-term decline? The RSI close to 10 seems to suggest so - but is this really the case?

• Read more

Gold, silver, and mining stocks declined profoundly yesterday and in many cases the already-huge profits were likely doubled. After all, we had increased the size of the short position to the levels that we’d never increased it to before, precisely because of the odds of seeing this kind of decline that we have right now. The decline in gold was sizable, but the sizes of declines in silver and mining stocks were enormous. The HUI Index broke right through the 2008 low like a hot knife through butter, but silver stopped at the July 2017 intraday low. Did the latter just indicate a local bottom and a relief rally?

• Read more

• Read more

After breakdowns below the psychologically important $1,200 in gold, and $15 in silver, the decline is picking up momentum. There seems be no end in sight. But, all things come to an end. In particular, no price move can go on forever. There will be some corrections along the way and the key questions are: “At what price will the next one start?” and “What one should do about it?” Hint: we’ll likely to profit even more before that happens.

• Read more

And so, it happened. Gold closed below $1,200 and silver closed below $15. What seemed to be almost impossible at the beginning of the year has become reality. But the most unbelievable part of yesterday’s decline is that while it may seem like an important bottom that ends a sizable medium-term decline, it isn’t. It’s just the first part of a huge decline and multiple signals have been pointing to this outcome. But, it’s only now – after the breakdowns below important price levels – becoming apparent to gold perma-bulls that something is not right. Actually, it is very right, as all markets move from being overbought to oversold and gold hasn’t reached the latter stage yet even though it looked like it was the case in late 2015. Gold is not yet very oversold from the long-term point of view (just look at the gold analyses that are out there – most of them are bullish and people should be scared and bearish at the bottom), but it’s getting there. And the odds are that before the bottom is in, the profits on our short positions will become quite extreme.

• Read more