Just a quick update as things are moving quite fast in the PMs.

Silver soared today (greatly outperforming gold) and touched its late 2014 high, gold is higher, and miners are higher as well, but only to a limited extent. Out of the entire precious metals market, the latter were barely affected.

In fact, miners are up by less than 2% today. We know this is very tough to believe right now, as it is always the case when silver is soaring - but this is not a bullish combination. In early parts of big upswings miners outperform and silver lags. At the very end of a rally, silver soars while miners lag or even decline. We are in the latter type of situation.

In today's regular Gold and Silver Trading Alert, we wrote the following with regard to the similarity to the 2016 top:

"Assuming the analogous relative price increases this time, one could expect GDX to form a top at $39.91 in terms of the daily closing prices and to form the intraday high at $40.81.

The GDX ETF just closed at $40.38 and the intraday high was $40.49. These prices are between the above-mentioned prices, which means that so far the situation is developing very similarly as it developed in 2016, and that we can expect the final top to be in or to be formed very soon."

At the moment of writing these words, GDX is trading at $40.97 and today's intraday high was $41.62. This less than 2% above the price that would be 100% similar to the 2016 price moves.

We also wrote that "we might see an initial move higher - back above the rising resistance line, and then a slide below it, perhaps through a daily reversal pattern". We wrote that "such a development would be a perfectly bearish confirmation of yesterday's big analysis." The miners are not back below this line, but they are very close to it and they underperformed gold (and GLD) to a big extent.

Consequently, it's either the case that the precious metals market is truly going to break higher from here, or it's finishing the big run-up from March lows and is ready to slide once again. Today's very strong performance of silver and very weak performance of mining stocks suggests that the latter is much more likely.

As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - informed.

Thank you.

Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Editor-in-chief, Gold & Silver Fund Manager