We received a few questions today whether or not points made in today's alert are up-to-date, since gold moved a few dollars higher (less than $10) when we sent it and what we wrote included charts of Friday's closing prices. We thought everyone would appreciate knowing how the process works.
First of all, we would like to emphasize that what we publish and send to you is practically always up-to-date as far as implications are concerned - and if not, a follow-up is sent immediately. Everything we send is being checked right before emails are issued, to make sure you get our current views on the market.
Now, it is possible (markets change every second) that what you see on the charts changes a bit before you read the analysis but that doesn't mean that the implications change. If they do, we don't send an alert and we re-write it. If they don't change, we send it, because delaying the delivery of a given alert is something that we know you - our subscribers - don't like. In fact, about a week ago we were sending alerts a bit later (after the opening bell) i.a. to make sure that everything is up-to-date and we received requests to try sending them earlier.
Moreover, when there is an open speculative position, we usually (as it is the case right now) provide stop-loss orders, which means that you know when a price move is significant enough on its own for us to change the outlook on the market. At this time, gold, silver and mining stocks are well below these levels, which means that the price action alone doesn't change our position. We are aiming to profit from a significant (likely $100+) slide in gold and a small move higher in gold doesn't change much by itself.
The USD Index is almost at the short-term support line, which is quite likely to ignite a rally in the currency and this, in turn, is quite likely to ignite a decline in gold and the rest of the precious metals sector. As you know, the initial parts of big declines in gold are quite often very volatile, and being out of the market now would mean giving up on the opportunity to take advantage of it. That's why we keep the positions intact. However, we would like to stress that we will not keep these positions just for the sake of keeping them or for the sake of being correct eventually (we care about your profits way more than about any of the above). We will keep them intact only as long as the risk/reward ratio justifies it and in our opinion that is still the case.
As always - we will keep you - our subscribers - informed.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA