Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Gold Joins the Party

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Briefly: In our opinion, full (150% of the regular full position) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment of publishing this alert.

In yesterday’s alert we wrote that mining stocks might (!) correct, but that their temporary strength didn’t change the outlook and thus lower precious metals prices were to be expected. We didn’t have to wait long for a confirmation – silver declined once again (it’s now over $2 lower in just 3 weeks) and so did gold. What was most interesting about the move in the latter is that it finally broke below an important support line. It was the last to break as miners and silver had broken below their own respective support levels earlier. Can a one-day breakdown really be viewed as a bearish signal for gold?

In short, yes. Let’s take a look at gold’s chart for details (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Short-term Gold price chart - Gold spot price

First of all, saying that gold was the last to break below its support line is another way of saying that it didn’t initiate a breakdown in the precious metals sector – it confirmed it. The initial breakdown took place in silver and mining stocks and since now the entire trio: gold, silver and miners are after a breakdown, the implications are most bearish.

Now, some may say that the breakdown in gold is not yet confirmed and thus that it really doesn’t count. There is some truth to it, however, since gold was the last to break lower, the implications are somewhat bearish anyway, and – most importantly – the breakdown was actually verified, in a way. The confirmation (which is necessary to determine if a move is accidental / triggered artificially or a real one that truly represents market participants’ views) can come from several things – 3 consecutive closes below a certain level, big size of the move, big size of the volume and – at times – from a weekly close below a certain level. The week is not over yet, but the move in gold was accompanied by big volume, so it was already somewhat confirmed. If gold closes today’s session (and, at the same time, the whole week) below the rising red support line ($1,242), the breakdown will be completely confirmed in our view.

Summing up, the breakdown in gold opens the way to much lower gold prices and it makes declines in the entire precious metals sector even more likely, especially that it took place without the USD’s help. The latter is still sitting on the support levels and with the medium-term outlook being very bullish, it appears that the USD will rally in the coming weeks and contribute to even lower precious metals prices. The overall implications for the PM market remain bearish. As always, we will keep you – our subscribers – informed.

To summarize:

Trading capital (supplementary part of the portfolio; our opinion): Short positions (150% of the full position) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following stop-loss orders and initial target price levels / profit-take orders:

Gold: exit-profit-take level: $1,063; stop-loss: $1,317; initial target price for the DGLD ETN: $81.88; stop-loss for the DGLD ETN $44.57
Silver: initial target price: $13.12; stop-loss: $19.22; initial target price for the DSLV ETN: $46.18; stop-loss for the DSLV ETN $17.93
Mining stocks (price levels for the GDX ETF): initial target price: $9.34; stop-loss: $26.34; initial target price for the DUST ETF: $143.56; stop-loss for the DUST ETF $21.37

In case one wants to bet on junior mining stocks' prices (we do not suggest doing so – we think senior mining stocks are more predictable in the case of short-term trades – if one wants to do it anyway, we provide the details), here are the stop-loss details and initial target prices:

GDXJ ETF: initial target price: $14.13; stop-loss: $45.31
JDST ETF: initial target price: $417.04; stop-loss: $43.12

Long-term capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): No positions (in other words: cash)

Insurance capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): Full position

Please note that the in the trading section we describe the situation for the day that the alert is posted. In other words, it we are writing about a speculative position, it means that it is up-to-date on the day it was posted. We are also featuring the initial target prices, so that you can decide whether keeping a position on a given day is something that is in tune with your approach (some moves are too small for medium-term traders and some might appear too big for day-traders).

Plus, you might want to read why our stop-loss orders are usually relatively far from the current price.

Please note that a full position doesn’t mean using all of the capital for a given trade. You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

As a reminder – “initial target price” means exactly that – an “initial” one, it’s not a price level at which we suggest closing positions. If this becomes the case (like it did in the previous trade) we will refer to these levels as levels of exit orders (exactly as we’ve done previously). Stop-loss levels, however, are naturally not “initial”, but something that, in our opinion, might be entered as an order.

Since it is impossible to synchronize target prices and stop-loss levels for all the ETFs and ETNs with the main markets that we provide these levels for (gold, silver and mining stocks – the GDX ETF), the stop-loss levels and target prices for other ETNs and ETF (among other: UGLD, DGLD, USLV, DSLV, NUGT, DUST, JNUG, JDST) are provided as supplementary, and not as “final”. This means that if a stop-loss or a target level is reached for any of the “additional instruments” (DGLD for instance), but not for the “main instrument” (gold in this case), we will view positions in both gold and DGLD as still open and the stop-loss for DGLD would have to be moved lower. On the other hand, if gold moves to a stop-loss level but DGLD doesn’t, then we will view both positions (in gold and DGLD) as closed. In other words, since it’s not possible to be 100% certain that each related instrument moves to a given level when the underlying instrument does, we can’t provide levels that would be binding. The levels that we do provide are our best estimate of the levels that will correspond to the levels in the underlying assets, but it will be the underlying assets that one will need to focus on regarding the signs pointing to closing a given position or keeping it open. We might adjust the levels in the “additional instruments” without adjusting the levels in the “main instruments”, which will simply mean that we have improved our estimation of these levels, not that we changed our outlook on the markets. We are already working on a tool that would update these levels on a daily basis for the most popular ETFs, ETNs and individual mining stocks.

Our preferred ways to invest in and to trade gold along with the reasoning can be found in the how to buy gold section. Additionally, our preferred ETFs and ETNs can be found in our Gold & Silver ETF Ranking.

As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional Alerts whenever appropriate.

The trading position presented above is the netted version of positions based on subjective signals (opinion) from your Editor, and the Tools and Indicators.

As a reminder, Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are posted before or on each trading day (we usually post them before the opening bell, but we don't promise doing that each day). If there's anything urgent, we will send you an additional small alert before posting the main one.

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