Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective. We are keeping the stop-loss levels at their current levels, which means that we are effectively keeping some gains locked in and at the same time we’re allowing the profits to increase.

In the previous alerts we focused on gold and mining stocks, as that’s where the most important action was, but this time we’ll also discuss another important part of the precious metals sector – silver stocks.

Let’s jump right to the charts (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Silver miners broke below their 2014 lows, which is a major bearish development. The breakdown is not confirmed („the dam is not broken“), but the first and most important step was just made („there’s a crack in the concrete“). Will other parts of the precious metals sector follow? Most likely, even if that doesn’t happen right away.

Gold declined yesterday, but the size of the decline was rather small – there has been no breakdown so far. Consequently, our yesterday‘s comments remain up-to-date:

Gold moved decisively lower last week and the final closing price of the week was only $2 higher than the lowest weekly close of the entire 2011-today decline. The previous lowest weekly close formed on Nov. 28 2014 at $1,165.80 and last Friday gold closed at $1,168.20. If gold closes just a little lower this Friday, we’ll have a breakdown in terms of weekly closing prices with very bearish implications for the following weeks.

It could be the case that gold bottoms in the May - June time frame close to the $1,000 level.

(...)

Gold moved a little lower yesterday but we would not be surprised to see a small rally in the coming days, which would not take gold above the declining trend channel and thus would not change the bearish outlook.

Since not much changed in the silver market (the medium-term outlook remains bearish), we will move right to the mining stock sector.

The HUI Index moved lower once again and is even closer to its 2008 and 2014 lows, which has bearish implications as it increases the odds of a confirmed breakdown below them. Our yesterday’s comments remain up-to-date:

Gold stocks plunged sharply on Friday and are now well below their 2013 lows. It seems that they are back in the decline mode and their previous outperformance was indeed a very temporary phenomenon, as we expected. Once miners move below their 2008 and 2014 lows at about 150, we’ll likely see a slide below 120, perhaps even (very temporarily) below 100. Our target area in this range remains up-to-date.

The XAU Index (that includes both gold stocks and silver stocks) has just moved to its 2008 low (even temporarily breaking below it). Only very little weakness is needed for this index to break below the 2008 and 2014 lows, confirm the breakdown and - consequently - move even lower. The next major support is very low – close to the 42 level – so there will be significant downside if the breakdown is confirmed. It will be critical to watch the situation develop in the upcoming weeks and react to breakdowns and their confirmations.

Overall, yesterday’s session confirmed what we had written previously and we can summarize the current situation in the same way as we did yesterday:

Summing up, the precious metals sector moved much lower on Friday and it seems that it was another step in the current true direction of the market. We are likely to see a small corrective upswing here, but it doesn’t seem that we will see a more visible correction until we see gold close to its 2014 low. Gold stocks are now once again underperforming gold, which serves as a confirmation that the correction is over and the decline will now continue.

Even though the size of the profits on the current short position may suggest that’s it’s worth taking them off the table (we opened the short position on Jan. 23 when gold was at about $1,300), it seems that the risk/reward ratio still favors keeping the position open as it doesn’t seem that the decline is over. Even though gold has already fallen significantly, it’s still likely to decline even more in the coming weeks and it is this outlook that makes us think that the short position remains justified at this time.

As always, we’ll keep you – our subscribers – informed.

To summarize:

Trading capital (our opinion): Short positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks with the following stop-loss orders and initial (!) target prices:

• Gold: initial target level: $1,135; stop-loss: $1,234, initial target level for the DGLD ETN: $85.48; stop loss for the DGLD ETN $65.45
• Silver: initial target level: $15.10; stop-loss: $17.23, initial target level for the DSLV ETN: $74.05; stop loss for DSLV ETN $48.36
• Mining stocks (price levels for the GDX ETN): initial target level: $17.13; stop-loss: $21.17, initial target level for the DUST ETN: $23.49; stop loss for the DUST ETN $11.35

In case one wants to bet on lower junior mining stocks' prices, here are the stop-loss details and initial target prices:

• GDXJ: initial target level: $22.13; stop-loss: $27.38
• JDST: initial target level: $14.58; stop-loss: $7.10

Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions

Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position

Please note that a full position doesn’t mean using all of the capital for a given trade. You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

As a reminder – “initial target price” means exactly that – an “initial” one, it’s not a price level at which we suggest closing positions. If this becomes the case (like it did in the previous trade) we will refer to these levels as levels of exit orders (exactly as we’ve done previously). Stop-loss levels, however, are naturally not “initial”, but something that, in our opinion, might be entered as an order.

Since it is impossible to synchronize target prices and stop-loss levels for all the ETFs and ETNs with the main markets that we provide these levels for (gold, silver and mining stocks – the GDX ETF), the stop-loss levels and target prices for other ETNs and ETF (among other: UGLD, DGLD, USLV, DSLV, NUGT, DUST, JNUG, JDST) are provided as supplementary, and not as “final”. This means that if a stop-loss or a target level is reached for any of the “additional instruments” (DGLD for instance), but not for the “main instrument” (gold in this case), we will view positions in both gold and DGLD as still open and the stop-loss for DGLD would have to be moved lower. On the other hand, if gold moves to a stop-loss level but DGLD doesn’t, then we will view both positions (in gold and DGLD) as closed. In other words, since it’s not possible to be 100% certain that each related instrument moves to a given level when the underlying instrument does, we can’t provide levels that would be binding. The levels that we do provide are our best estimate of the levels that will correspond to the levels in the underlying assets, but it will be the underlying assets that one will need to focus on regarding the sings pointing to closing a given position or keeping it open. We might adjust the levels in the “additional instruments” without adjusting the levels in the “main instruments”, which will simply mean that we have improved our estimation of these levels, not that we changed our outlook on the markets. We are already working on a tool that would update these levels on a daily basis for the most popular ETFs, ETNs and individual mining stocks.

Our preferred ways to invest in and to trade gold along with the reasoning can be found in the how to buy gold section. Additionally, our preferred ETFs and ETNs can be found in our Gold & Silver ETF Ranking.

As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional Alerts whenever appropriate.

The trading position presented above is the netted version of positions based on subjective signals (opinion) from your Editor, and the automated tools (SP Indicators and the upcoming self-similarity-based tool).

As a reminder, Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are posted before or on each trading day (we usually post them before the opening bell, but we don't promise doing that each day). If there's anything urgent, we will send you an additional small alert before posting the main one.

=====

Latest Free Trading Alerts:

We see Bitcoin moving into the direction of $300, which also coincides with the level of the late-January local top. Does this mean that we might see more significant action in the next couple of days?

Bitcoin Trading Alert: Bitcoin Even More Overbought

=====

Hand-picked precious-metals-related links:

In pain: Gold struggles with U.S. economic resurgence

Gold’s long-term decline remains the real story – Ritholtz

Platinum market deficit seen shrinking to 235,000 oz in 2015: WPIC

Venezuela discussing gold swap with Wall Street banks - sources

All is not well on the metals commodities front

=====

In other news:

Euro Racing to Record Drop as Draghi QE Purchases Depress Yields

Draghi: ECB QE risks are contained

Cramer Remix: The Fed still knows nothing

History Suggests OPEC's Days Could Be Numbered

=====

Thank you.

Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Trading Alerts
Forex Trading Alerts
Oil Investment Updates
Oil Trading Alerts