Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Very Strong Action in Miners and its Bullish Implications

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Briefly: In our opinion, speculative long (full) positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Yesterday’s rallies in gold and silver were not profound, but the relative outperformance of mining stocks definitely was. Miners rallied almost 4%, even though gold moved higher by 0.5% and the USD Index closed practically unchanged. The strong performance of mining stocks suggests that the rally is not over.

Let’s take a closer look (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Short-term Gold price chart - Gold spot price

Short-term Silver price chart - Silver spot price

As far as metals are concerned, there’s one thing that we would like to emphasize at this time – silver is not outperforming gold to any significant degree. Why is this significant? Because seeing something like that often means that a trend is about to reverse and declines are about to follow. We have not seen anything like that this week or in the previous one. Thus, a further rally is certainly possible.

Why is it likely?

GDX - Market Vectors Gold Miners - Gold mining stocks

Just like we mentioned earlier today, miners greatly outperformed metals and that’s one of the 2 key things that make a short-term rally likely (the second one is the metals’ ability to rally without a decline in the USD). The volume was not huge yesterday, but it was not very low either – overall, we view it as sufficient to confirm the bullish outlook. Besides, moderate volume at this time suggests that there is still quite a lot of speculative capital waiting on the sidelines that can fuel the following part of the move.

The target area that we featured previously remains up-to-date. As of today, it seems most probable that miners will move to the upper part of the target area before the top is in. The $26 level seems to be a quite probable target level.

Summing up, yesterday’s price action and relative movements (metals vs. the USD; miners vs. metals) confirms the bullish outlook for the short term. The profits on our long positions increased but it seems that they will increase further before the trade is over.

As always, we will keep you – our subscribers – updated.

To summarize:

Trading capital (supplementary part of the portfolio; our opinion): Long positions (100% of the full position) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following stop-loss orders and initial target price levels:

Gold: initial target price: $1,295; stop-loss: $1,237, initial target price for the UGLD ETN: $12.47; stop-loss for the UGLD ETN $10.23
Silver: initial target price: $18.45; stop-loss: $16.88, initial target price for the USLV ETN: $19.78; stop-loss for the USLV ETN $14.67
Mining stocks (price levels for the GDX ETF): initial target price: $25.77; stop-loss: $21.77, initial target price for the NUGT ETF: $17.38; stop-loss for the NUGT ETF $9.77

In case one wants to bet on junior mining stocks' prices (we do not suggest doing so – we think senior mining stocks are more predictable in the case of short-term trades – if one wants to do it anyway, we provide the details), here are the stop-loss details and initial target prices:

GDXJ ETF: initial target price: $43.87; stop-loss: $35.86
JNUG ETF: initial target price: $15.87; stop-loss: $8.78

Long-term capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): No positions

Insurance capital (core part of the portfolio; our opinion): Full position

Plus, you might want to read why our stop-loss orders are usually relatively far from the current price.

Please note that a full position doesn’t mean using all of the capital for a given trade. You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

As a reminder – “initial target price” means exactly that – an “initial” one, it’s not a price level at which we suggest closing positions. If this becomes the case (like it did in the previous trade) we will refer to these levels as levels of exit orders (exactly as we’ve done previously). Stop-loss levels, however, are naturally not “initial”, but something that, in our opinion, might be entered as an order.

Since it is impossible to synchronize target prices and stop-loss levels for all the ETFs and ETNs with the main markets that we provide these levels for (gold, silver and mining stocks – the GDX ETF), the stop-loss levels and target prices for other ETNs and ETF (among other: UGLD, DGLD, USLV, DSLV, NUGT, DUST, JNUG, JDST) are provided as supplementary, and not as “final”. This means that if a stop-loss or a target level is reached for any of the “additional instruments” (DGLD for instance), but not for the “main instrument” (gold in this case), we will view positions in both gold and DGLD as still open and the stop-loss for DGLD would have to be moved lower. On the other hand, if gold moves to a stop-loss level but DGLD doesn’t, then we will view both positions (in gold and DGLD) as closed. In other words, since it’s not possible to be 100% certain that each related instrument moves to a given level when the underlying instrument does, we can’t provide levels that would be binding. The levels that we do provide are our best estimate of the levels that will correspond to the levels in the underlying assets, but it will be the underlying assets that one will need to focus on regarding the signs pointing to closing a given position or keeping it open. We might adjust the levels in the “additional instruments” without adjusting the levels in the “main instruments”, which will simply mean that we have improved our estimation of these levels, not that we changed our outlook on the markets. We are already working on a tool that would update these levels on a daily basis for the most popular ETFs, ETNs and individual mining stocks.

Our preferred ways to invest in and to trade gold along with the reasoning can be found in the how to buy gold section. Additionally, our preferred ETFs and ETNs can be found in our Gold & Silver ETF Ranking.

As always, we'll keep you - our subscribers - updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional Alerts whenever appropriate.

The trading position presented above is the netted version of positions based on subjective signals (opinion) from your Editor, and the Tools and Indicators.

As a reminder, Gold & Silver Trading Alerts are posted before or on each trading day (we usually post them before the opening bell, but we don't promise doing that each day). If there's anything urgent, we will send you an additional small alert before posting the main one.

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