USD Index is where it was 4 trading days ago, gold is where it was 4 days ago and the same can be said about silver. Stocks are a bit lower where they closed 4 trading days ago and mining stocks are no exception here.
The moves that we see today are insignificant and, consequently, they don't change our views on the precious metals market. We will therefore quote what we wrote yesterday to put an emphasis on its timeliness.
The precious metals are moving modestly higher once again today - at least at the moment of writing these words (gold at $1,652) and we are as bullish today as we were yesterday and on Friday. Consequently, what we wrote in the latest Premium Update remains up-to-date.
It's the first half of January, 2013 and at this time of the year precious metals have traditionally rallied. The odds are that the "seasonal wave" will help gold and silver move higher. In fact, the true seasonal tendencies will remain favorable for the precious metals market until the third week of February, which leaves plenty of space for a rally.
As we indicated in yesterday's Market Alert, the USD Index invalidated its short-term breakout and the short-term outlook is bearish - which is bullish for gold, silver, and mining stocks.
Silver remains at its strong, long-term support line and the same can be said about gold from the non-USD perspective - with strong support below today's prices and bullish factors in place, a rally seems to be in the cards.
Just as we indicated on Friday, at this time half of the long position is suggested for gold and silver and a full long position is suggested for mining stocks.
We will probably see a buy signal in the SP indicators shortly, which will make us suggest doubling the long position in gold and silver, but that's not yet the case.
Naturally, we suggest remaining in the precious metals market with your long-term investments.
For new subscribers - please refer to our gold and silver portfolio page for more details on the meaning of the above comments.
We have one more announcement for today - we just updated our Q&A Panel. As a reminder, the Question and Answer Panel is the place, where we put the questions that we previously replied to in the "Letters to the Editor" section and that are universal, meaning that they are not timing-related and will remain up-to-date for a long time. Archives of this section are available to everyone, but the replies that were provided in the last 2 months are available only to you - our Premium Subscribers.
For your convenience, here's the list of the questions that we replied to recently If you read all recent Premium Updates, you already know these, but if you missed some of them, we encourage you to check them out:
- How can I invest in gold outside of the U.S. or Europe?
- What is a cyclical turning point?
- Can it be profitable to invest in gold in India?
- When should I close a position based on one of your indicators?
- Can I use some of your indicators for trading GDX and XAU?
- What impact will the new oil deposit in North Dakota have on gold prices?
- Does a positive correlation of gold with the dollar imply a fundamental change in the market?
- Is gold overvalued? If not, how high can it go?
- Why would I use gold and silver ETFs?
- Will silver soar to $75?
- What do you think of BullionVault and GoldMoney as platforms to buy physical gold?
- What do you think of allegations that JPMorgan manipulates the silver market?
- Is it OK to be ultra bullish on precious metals and take huge speculative positions?
- Why do you suggest closing long positions but not opening short ones?
- Why do you suggest looking at each trade individually?
- Which trading platform do you use?
- With $100,000, what percentage of my portfolio should I put in mining stocks?
- Do you look at pre- and after-market volumes of precious metals?
As always, we'll keep you updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Market Alerts on a daily basis (except when Premium Updates are posted) at least until the end of January, 2013 and we will send additional Market Alerts whenever appropriate.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA