At the first sight gold and silver are basically flat today, but after taking a closer look you can see that they moved lower, bottomed, and rallied back up before the markets opened in the US. This means that the immediate-term trend is up. The strength of such a signal is weak, but still, it's something positive.
Besides that, the situation is quite similar to what we saw yesterday - it doesn't look encouraging, but if you take a broader look, it occurs that actually the bullish picture remains in place and price remains above the stop-loss levels. The price action was not encouraging during the summer months either, but a powerful and quick rally followed. The price action around the 300-day moving average is still more or less in tune with what was seen during previous important bottoms. Plus, the USD Index is moving close to its cyclical turning point which could finally trigger a rally in the metals market.
Platinum rallied once again today and we expect that it will continue to outperform gold in the months to come (there may be short-term corrections, also relative to gold, of course).
We'd like precious metals to rally immediately, and we believe so would you, instead of just moving back and forth like it was the case in the middle of 2012. However, just like it was the case back then, we expect the rally that will follow the end of this consolidation to be significant and worth waiting for.
Just as we indicated previously, a full speculative long position is suggested for gold and silver, and also for mining stocks.
Naturally, we suggest remaining in the precious metals market with your long-term investments.
As always, we'll keep you updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Market Alerts on a daily basis (except when Premium Updates are posted) at least until the end of February, 2013 and we will send additional Market Alerts whenever appropriate.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA