Here's a quick update on today's situation in the precious metals market. Gold and silver are not doing much today, but there are a few points that we would like to comment on:
- The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index remains in the 2008-like extremely oversold levels
- Gold from the non-USD perspective ended last week slightly higher than it had closed the previous one and it remains above the declining support line
- Virtually nothing changed last week in the silver market as the white metal declined $0.16
- From the non-USD perspective, silver once again corrected to the declining long-term support line and pulled back
- There was one more spike high in the ratio of volumes - juniors vs. other stocks (GDXJ:SPY) - it was not as big as the one seen in late February, but it was quite close. Again, the implications are bullish.
Based on the above points it still seems that we are in the bottoming area for the precious metals sector.
However, our stop-loss target for the mining stocks (HUI: 352) was reached and consequently only half of the speculative long position is suggested at this time. We might need to see a move to 333 or so in the HUI Index before the bottom is reached - that's the target based on the major, long-term 2000 and 2008 bottoms. We will probably suggest getting back on the long side of the market shortly.
Full speculative long positions are suggested for gold and silver and half of the speculative long position is suggested for mining stocks.
Naturally, we suggest remaining in the precious metals market with your long-term investments.
As always, we'll keep you updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Market Alerts on a daily basis (except when Premium Updates are posted) at least until the end of March, 2013 and we will send additional Market Alerts whenever appropriate. In other words, we have decided to keep you informed on a daily basis for another full month.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA