There was no trading yesterday, so the comments made in the summary of yesterday's Premium Update remain up-to-date. One thing that we would like to comment on is yesterday's move higher in the USD Index. It moved to almost the 84 level, which is a substantial move and metals didn't decline much - this suggests that precious metals will not decline right away, but that a move up is to be expected. Implications for investors/traders? None, in our view. The downtrends remain in place. Gold and silver can rally from here without breaking the important resistance levels and thus without changing the overall outlook.
Additionally, a day when the US markets are closed is not really representative for the general tendencies and changes in them, so we think that yesterday's move higher in the USD Index and lack of significant reaction in gold is still not that important. If it persists, we might suggest opening long positions, though.
Long-term capital: Half position in gold, platinum and mining stocks, no position in silver.
As far as long-term mining stock selection is concerned, we suggest using our tools before making purchases: the Golden StockPicker and the Silver StockPicker
Trading capital: No positions. We suggest placing buy orders for the speculative long positions in gold and silver for gold at $1,160 and silver at $17,40. We don't have analogous price levels for mining stocks, but it seems that it will be a good idea to buy them when you buy gold based on the $1,160 target.
After the above-mentioned move higher (rally from $1,150 in gold) we expect metals and miners to decline once again and move to $1,090 (gold), $14,70, and 150 (HUI Index). These levels could be seen along with USD Index at 86 - 86.4. At that time (if we see another downswing), we will suggest purchasing metals and miners at the following price levels (speculative trades):
- Gold: $1,105 (stop-loss: $970)
- Silver: $15.20 (stop-loss: $14.20)
- $HUI: 155 (stop-loss: 137)
These levels are slightly above the price targets to maximize the odds of entering the trade (if everyone thinks that gold will move to $1090 they will buy before it reaches this level and ultimately gold may not drop as low at all).
As always, we'll keep you updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send out Market Alerts on a daily basis (except when Premium Updates are posted) at least until the end of July, 2013 and we will send additional Market Alerts whenever appropriate. We have prolonged the time in which you - our subscribers - will receive Market Alerts daily for another full month.
Thank you.
Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA