Please excuse the time at which the previous alert was sent and its length, but it was not until the very last hour of the session that we became confident that opening a small speculative short position is a good move. Unfortunately that is often the case when the key confirmation comes from the analysis of volume - until we get close to the end of the session we cannot tell what the volume will most likely be.

Naturally, here "good" means justified from the risk/reward perspective. As always, we would like to explain the logic behind our alert.

We've based this suggestion on the following factors:

- Gold (GLD ETF) moved higher on EXTREMELY low volume,
- Mining stocks barely moved, which - taking into account gold's intraday rally - is a bearish sign,
- The analysis of the True Seasonal patterns for gold and silver suggest an important top in a few days. While the quality of prediction is not too high today, it is very high for April 13th, where the price is likely to be much lower than it is today,
- GDX ETF (mining stocks proxy) once again failed to move away from the Fibonacci retracement level - something that we explained in the last two Premium Updates.

Additional point that we would like to comment on is today's action in silver. The white metal moved above previous highs, but not above the very short-term resistance line. Moreover, silver is less predictable from the technical perspective than gold and mining stocks are, so the bearish signal coming from the analysis of gold is more important than silver's unconfirmed breakout.

We will keep you informed and let you know if we believe that additional action is required.

Thank you.

Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski