The U.S. markets are closed today due to Thanksgiving, so we would normally not be sending any analysis today, but since gold is approaching its final bottom, we thought that you’d appreciate a quick update.

As I explained previously (also this Monday), gold tends to decline after Thanksgiving and bottom close to mid-December. In particular, in case of the U.S. presidential election years, this bearish post-Thanksgiving tendency has been particularly prominent.

The USD Index moved slightly lower today, and gold moved slightly higher, so you might be wondering if this changes the above bearish implications. In short, not at all. Conversely, it fits what I wrote previously. In case of 2 out of 4 previous U.S. presidential years (2012 and 2008), gold was rallying more or less up to Thanksgiving and plunged shortly thereafter. In 2004, gold kept on rallying for several more days and then plunged dramatically on Dec 8. In 2016, gold just kept on declining regardless of Thanksgiving.

The current small rebound perfectly fits the above-described similarity as it’s somewhat of an average of all the previous 4 cases. We see a rebound, but it’s relatively small. If gold was rebounding despite strength in the USDX, the implications would have been bullish, but gold is actually failing to rally despite dollar’s small breakdown.

Summing up, the implications remain bearish and everything that we wrote in the last few Gold & Silver Trading Alerts remains up-to-date.

As always, we’ll keep you - our subscribers - informed.

Finally, I would like to wish happy Thanksgiving to you and your families.

Thank you.

Sincerely,
Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief