Briefly:

Intraday trade: The S&P 500 index gained 1.0% after opening 0.6% higher on Tuesday. The broad stock market will likely open virtually flat this morning. We may see an attempt at getting back to the early May record high.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes gained 1.0-1.4% on Tuesday, breaking above their short-term consolidation, as investors' sentiment improved ahead of today's FOMC's Statement release, among others. The S&P 500 index gained more than 200 points from its early June local low. It is currently just 1.2% below its May the 1st record high of 2,954.13. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.4% on Tuesday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,930, marked by the local high. The resistance level is also at 2,950-2,955, marked by the mentioned all-time high. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,895-2,905, marked by the yesterday's daily gap up of 2,897.27-2,905.44. The support level is also at 2,875-2,880.

The broad stock market broke above the last year's high in the early May. But then the S&P 500 index retraced all of the April's advance. The market also broke below its two-month-long upward trend line in the early May. And then it got back higher following breaking above the month-long downward trend line. Yesterday the broad stock market got closer to the record high again:

Mixed Expectations, Countdown to FOMC Release

The index futures contracts trade between -0.1% and 0.0% vs. their yesterday's closing prices, so the expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will wait for the Crude Oil Inventories number release at 10:30 a.m. They will also wait for the Federal Funds Rate announcement at 2:00 p.m.

The broad stock market will likely fluctuate following yesterday's rally. We may see an attempt at getting back to the early May all-time high. However, there may be a short-term profit-taking action at some point.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it fluctuates along the 2,920 level. The nearest important resistance level is at 2,930, marked by the local high. On the other hand, the support level is now at 2,890-2,900. The futures contract remains close to yesterday's daily high, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Nasdaq Also Going Sideways

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades sideways this morning. The nearest important resistance level is at 7,650-7,700. On the other hand, the support level is now at 7,600. The Nasdaq futures contract remains within a relatively narrow intraday trading range so far, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Microsoft at New Record High, Market Cap of $1.02T

Let's take a look at the Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). The stock is now close to the resistance level of $200, following breaking above the downward trend line in the early June. It still looks like an upward correction:

Now let's take a look at the daily chart of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). The stock reached the new record high of $135.24 yesterday. It broke above the short-term consolidation again. But will it continue upwards? We could see another profit-taking action at some point. The resistance level is at around $140, marked by the previous medium-term upward trend line:

Dow Jones Closer to 26,500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has been relatively weaker than the broad stock market since February. The resistance level remained at around 26,800-27,000, marked by the last year's topping pattern and the record high of 26,951.8. In the late May the market broke below its important 200-day moving average, but then it got back higher. Since then it is retracing the May decline. Yesterday, the index broke above the short-term consolidation and it got closer to the resistance level of 26,500:

The S&P 500 index traded within a short-term consolidation last week, as investors took short-term profits off the table following the early June rally. Yesterday it broke above the consolidation and it got closer to the early May record high. Will it continue higher following today's Fed's Rate Decision release?

Concluding, the S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat today. Then investors will wait for the important Fed's Rate Decision release. We may see an increased volatility after 2:00 p.m.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): no positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

There will be no Stock Trading Alerts on Thursday, June the 20th and on Friday, June the 21st. We apologize for inconvenience.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care