The retail data came out not only as horrendous, but also below expectations - and the manufacturing figures can't save the day, fundamentally speaking. Yet, stocks have been refusing to decline much further before the opening bell. Disappointment for the bears, certainly.

When would be a better time to slide than right then?

Yes, stocks opened with a bearish gap, and the bulls attempted to close it. Yet they failed, and prices went back to where they opened, looking for direction since.

The weakness stretches across the sectors, with high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) trading relatively unchanged on the day.

So, neither the bears, not the bulls have made much progress today. Which way are the risks skewed then in the short-term?

Once we look at the weekly S&P 500 chart, we see that stocks aren't trading too far above previous week's open (that's around 2820). Should the bears push hard, they can force this week's close below previous week's candle, which would send a medium-term bearish signal. Given the HYG ETF performance so far, it's not out of the question that selling pressure would stick.

That's why we see more risks to the downside than to the upside - regardless of the more than 10-point jump higher in the last 15 minutes. That goes for the short-term, and even more so for the medium-term as the stock rally appears forming a rounded top on the weekly chart.

Thank you and have a nice weekend.

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care