Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions are still favored (with stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is still bullish, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: bullish
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.1% and 0.8% on Monday, retracing some of last week’s decline, as investors sentiment improved once again. The S&P 500 index extends its medium-term consolidation, as it trades below the level of resistance at 1,880-1,900. On the other hand, the nearest important support level is at around 1,860-1,865. The next support remains at 1,850, marked by the late April local low. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today’s session are virtually flat, with index futures currently down 0.1%. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.3-0.5% so far. Investors will wait for tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes release. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) continues to trade within its month-long consolidation (excluding recent rally, followed by failure at the resistance of 1,900). The nearest important resistance is at 1,880-1,885, and the support is at 1,855-1,860. There is no clear direction, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) is close to its half-month’s local high. The resistance is at around 3,620-3,625. For now, it looks like some further consolidation along the level of 3,600. Breaking above recent highs would be bullish:

Concluding, the broad stock market extends its fluctuations, as the S&P 500 index trades close to the resistance of 1,880-1,900. We continue to maintain our speculative long position, as we await a breakout to the upside (stop-loss at 1,850, S&P 500 index).

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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