Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.2% and 0.3% on Thursday, extending their short-term move up, as investors reacted to economic data announcements, among others. The S&P 500 index broke above its recent local highs on Tuesday. It has retraced some of its recent decline. The index is currently less than 2% below March 1 all-time high of 2,400.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above 20,700 mark again, and technology Nasdaq Composite index broke above the level of 5,900. Overall, stocks retraced some more of their recent move down off new record highs recently. Is this a new uptrend or just upward correction within new medium-term downtrend? The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,350-2,360, marked by recent local lows. The next support level is at 2,335-2,340, marked by local lows. The support level is also at 2,320, marked by February 13 daily gap up of 2,319.23-2,321.42 and Monday's local low. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is now at 2,380-2,400, marked by all-time high, among others. We can see some short-term volatility following five-month-long rally off last year's November low at around 2,100. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal? The uptrend accelerated on March 1 and it looked like a blow-off top pattern accompanied by some buying frenzy. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along its medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are negative, with index futures currently down 0.2-0.3%. The European stock market indexes have lost 0.2-0.5% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Personal Income, Personal Spending, PCE Prices Index at 8:30 a.m., Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m., Michigan Sentiment - Final at 10:00 a.m. The market expects that Chicago PMI declined to 55.8, and Michigan Sentiment was unchanged at 97.6 in March. The market also expects that Personal Income number grew 0.4%, and Personal Spending grew 0.2% in February. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation following an overnight move down. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,360-2,365, marked by local high and some previous short-term consolidation. The resistance level is also at 2,380-2,400, marked by topping consolidation along new record high. On the other hand, support level is at 2,350, marked by recent local lows. The next support level is at 2,340, marked by previous level of resistance. The market trades within an upward correction, following last week's move down. Or is this a new uptrend?

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract remains relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it currently trades above 5,400 mark. It has reached new record high slightly above the level of 5,450 recently. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 5,440-5,450, marked by all-time high. On the other hand, support level is at 5,370-5,400, marked by previous level of resistance. The next important level of support is at 5,300-5,320, marked by Monday's local lows, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Concluding, the broad stock market extended its short-term move up following recent rebound off support level, as the S&P 500 index got closer to the level of 2,370. Is this a new uptrend or just upward correction within month-long downtrend? There have been no confirmed short-term positive signals so far. We still can see medium-term overbought conditions along with negative technical divergences. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on February 15 at 2,335.58 - opening price of the S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,410 and potential profit target is at 2,200 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

To summarize: short position in S&P 500 index is justified from the risk/reward perspective with the following entry prices, stop-loss orders and profit target price levels:

S&P 500 index - short position: profit target level: 2,200; stop-loss level: 2,410
S&P 500 futures contract (June) - short position: profit target level: 2,197; stop-loss level: 2,407
SPY ETF (SPDR S&P 500, not leveraged) - short position: profit target level: $220; stop-loss level: $241
SDS ETF (ProShares UltraShort S&P500, leveraged: -2x) - long position: profit target level: $15.47; stop-loss level: $12.98

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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