Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.9-1.5% on Tuesday, extending their volatile fluctuations following Friday's sell-off, as investors' sentiment worsened again. The S&P 500 index remains below its two-month-long consolidation following June - July rally. Is this a new downtrend or just quick downward correction? The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,170, marked by Friday's daily gap down of 2,169.08-2,177.49. On the other hand, support level is at 2,120-2,130, marked by recent local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:
Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are slightly positive, with index futures currently up 0.1-0.2%. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.1-0.5% so far. Investors will now wait for the Crude Inventories number release at 10:30 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it fluctuates following yesterday's move down. The nearest important support level is at around 2,120. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,140-2,150, among others as the 15-minute chart shows:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it currently trades along the level of 4,730. The nearest important support level is at around 4,700. On the other hand, resistance level is at 4,750-4,770, marked by yesterday's local high. The market trades within a short-term consolidation following Monday's rebound:
Concluding, the broad stock market extended its volatile fluctuations on Tuesday, as the S&P 500 index got closer to short-term low. There have been no confirmed positive signals so far. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.