Briefly: In our opinion, no speculative positions are justified
Our intraday outlook is now neutral, and our short-term outlook is neutral:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): neutral
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): bearish
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish
The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and +0.2% on Tuesday, as investors hesitated ahead of today's Fed's Rate Decision release, among others. The S&P 500 index continues to trade within its February - August consolidation. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,100-2,130, and support level is at 2,020-2,050, marked by previous resistance level:
Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are slightly positive, with index futures currently up 0.2-0.3%. The main European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-0.7% so far. Investors will now wait for the FOMC Rate Decision release at 2:00 p.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) trades within an intraday consolidation, following yesterday's move up. The nearest important level of resistance is at 2,070, and support level is at 2,050, as the 15-minute chart shows:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) trades within an intraday uptrend, as investors react to better-than-expected quarterly corporate earnings releases, among others. The nearest important level of resistance is at 4,650, and support level remains at 4,600, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:
Concluding, the broad stock market extended its short-term fluctuations on Tuesday. For now, it looks like a flat correction within an uptrend. Our speculative short position (2,024.37, S&P 500 index) has been closed at the stop-loss level of 2,060 (S&P 500 index) on Thursday, as the futures contract extended its gains after-hours. It followed our recent gain of 131.83 index points. We prefer to be out of the market at this moment, avoiding low risk/reward ratio trades. We will let you know when we think it is safe to get back in the market.
Here is the summary of our S&P 500 index trades this year so far:
02-18-2015 open short 2,099.16
03-18-2015 close short (stop-loss profit taking) 2,090 +9.16
04-22-2015 open short 2,098.27
08-21-2015 close short (profit taking) 1,980 +118.27
09-29-2015 open long 1,881.90
10-09-2015 close long (profit taking) 2,013.73 +131.83
10-16-2015 open short 2,024.37
10-22-2015 close short (stop-loss) 2,060 -35.63
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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