Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,140, and profit target at 1,980, S&P 500 index)

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.3% on Thursday, as investors hesitated following Wednesday's FOMC's Rate Decision release, among others. The S&P 500 index continues to fluctuate along the level of 2,100. The nearest important resistance level is at around 2,120, and the next level of resistance is at 2,130-2,135, marked by late May all-time high. On the other hand, support level remains at 2,090-2,100. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far, however, we can see negative technical divergences:

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat, with index futures currently down 0.1%. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m., Chicago PMI at 9:45 a.m., Michigan Sentiment number at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) trades within an intraday consolidation, after yesterday's advance following lower opening. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,150, and support level is at 2,085-2,090, among others, as the 15-minute chart shows:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) trades within a similar intraday consolidation, following yesterday's move up. The nearest important level of resistance is at 4,600, and support level is at 4,570, among others, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Concluding, the broad stock market remained within a short-term consolidation yesterday, as investors hesitated following Fed's Rate Decision release. There have been no confirmed medium-term negative signals so far. However, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (2,098.27, S&P 500 index), as we expect a medium-term downward correction or an uptrend reversal. Stop-loss is at 2,140, and potential profit target is at 1,980. You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Stock Trading Alerts