Briefly: In our opinion no speculative positions are justified.

Our intraday outlook is neutral, and our short-term outlook remains neutral:

Intraday (next 24 hours) outlook: neutral
Short-term (next 1-2 weeks) outlook: neutral
Medium-term (next 1-3 months) outlook: neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): bullish

The U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.1% and 0.9% yesterday, retracing some of the recent move down. The S&P 500 index has deepened its short-term downtrend, before closing 0.4% higher, quite neutral as we have predicted yesterday. For now, it looks like flat correction within downtrend, however, a downtrend reversal cannot be ruled out – the market is at the support of 1,840-1,850, marked by March consolidation, among others. So, our neutral intraday and short-term outlook still seems to be justified, as a possibility of the broad market going up or down is practically the same at this moment:

Expectations before the opening of today’s session are virtually flat, with index futures currently mixed between -0.1% and +0.2%. The main European stock market indexes have gained 0.5-0.7% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Wholesale Inventories at 10:00 a.m., FOMC Minutes release at 2:00 p.m. The S&P 500 futures contract (CFD) trades in a relatively narrow range, along the level of 1,840. The nearest important resistance is at 1,850, and the support is at 1,830, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract (CFD) follows similar path, as it trades along the level of 3,530. The nearest important support is at 3,480-3,500. For now, it looks like a correction within a short-term downtrend, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
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