Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective (S&P 500 index).

Intraday outlook: The broad stock market will likely open virtually flat today. Then we may see a consolidation following the recent rally.

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between 0.0% and +0.2% on Monday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish ahead of quarterly earnings releases, among other factors. The S&P 500 index reached the new record high of 3,017.80, before closing virtually flat. It gained around 290 points from its early June local low of 2,728.81. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% on Monday.

The nearest important resistance level of the S&P 500 index is at around 3,020. On the other hand, the support level is at 2,995-3,000, marked by the recent resistance level. The support level is also at 2,985, marked by the Wednesday's daily gap up of 2.981.90-2,984.62.

The broad stock market broke above its short-term consolidation recently and it broke the 3,000 mark. Is this a real bullish breakout above the last year's September-October topping pattern? The S&P 500 extends its half-year-long run-up:

Mixed Expectations, Short-Term Consolidation or Topping Pattern?

The index futures contracts trade between -0.05% and +0.05% vs. their yesterday's closing prices, so expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have been mixed so far. Investors will wait for series of economic data releases this morning: Retail Sales at 8:30 a.m., Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate at 9:15 a.m., Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. There will also be a speech from the Fed Chair Powell at 1:00 p.m.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it remains close to the record high. The nearest important support level is now at 3,010-3,015. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 3,020-3,025. The futures contract trades along the short-term upward trend line, as the 15-minute chart shows:

Nasdaq Also Close to Record High

The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it trades within an intraday consolidation. It remains slightly below the 8,000 mark. The support level is at 7,850-7,900. The Nasdaq futures contract is close to the new record high, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:

Big Cap Tech Stocks Going Sideways

Let's take a look at the Apple, Inc. stock (AAPL) daily chart (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). The stock broke slightly above the resistance level of $200 recently. Then we saw a short-term consolidation, as the market fluctuated below the early May local highs. The resistance level remains at $210-215, and the support level is at $195-200:

Now let's take a look at the daily chart of Amazon.com, Inc. stock (AMZN). The stock broke above its early May local high last week and it got closer to the price of $2,000. Then it accelerated higher. There is another resistance level of around $2,050, marked by the last year's record high of $2,050.50. On the other hand, the support level is now at $1,970-2,000:

Dow Jones at Another New Record

The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached the new record high of 27,364.69 yesterday. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see some short-term overbought conditions:

The S&P 500 index reached the new record high on Monday, as investors' sentiment remained bullish following the recent advances. But will the uptrend continue? We may see some short-term uncertainty following the breakout above 3,000 mark.

Concluding, the S&P 500 index will likely open virtually flat today. We could see a profit-taking action at some point. Investors will wait for the coming quarterly earnings releases.

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): No positions are justified from the risk/reward perspective (S&P 500 index). We decided to close our short position this morning, because the S&P 500 index broke above the 3,000 mark and it invalidated our bearish scenario.

Thank you.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care