Trading position (short-term, our opinion; levels for S&P 500 continuous futures contract): No positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view.
Stocks retraced some of their recent declines on Friday and the S&P 500 index is expected to open higher this morning. So is the downward correction over?
The S&P 500 index gained 0.72% on Friday, Nov. 12, as investor sentiment turned bullish and the market bounced from the support level of around 4,650. On Wednesday it fell to the local low of 4,630.86 and it was almost 88 points or 1.86% below the previous week’s Friday’s record high of 4,718.50.
The recent rally was not broad-based and it was driven by a handful of tech stocks like MSFT, NVDA, TSLA. The market seemed overbought in the short-term and traded within a topping pattern. But today the index may get back to the 4,700 level.
The nearest important support level remains at 4,630-4,650 and the next support level is at 4,600. On the other hand, the resistance level is at 4,700-4,720. The S&P 500 broke below its steep short-term upward trend line recently, as we can see on the daily chart (chart by courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):
Nasdaq Bounced From the 16,000 Level
Let’s take a look at the Nasdaq 100 chart. In the previous week the technology index broke above the 16,000 level and it was trading at the new record high. The market accelerated higher above its short-term upward trend line. But since then it has been retracing the rally. On Friday the index retraced some of the recent declines, however it remained below its short-term local lows, as we can see on the daily chart:
Apple Is Still Close to $150, Microsoft Remains Relatively Strong
Let’s take a look at the two biggest stocks in the S&P 500 index, AAPL and MSFT. Apple continues to fluctuate along the $150 price level. It is still well below the early September record high. Microsoft stock was reaching new record highs recently but last week it broke below its upward trend line. So those two big cap tech stocks remain mixed, as we can see on their daily charts:
Futures Contract Gets Closer to the All-Time High Again
Let’s take a look at the hourly chart of the S&P 500 futures contract. On Wednesday the market broke below a week-long upward trend line. This morning it’s getting back higher and it’s closer to the record high. For now, it looks like a short-term consolidation. In our opinion no positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view. (chart by courtesy of http://tradingview.com):
Conclusion
The S&P 500 index retraced some of its recent declines on Friday and today it is expected to open 0.4% higher. So it looks like a downward correction is over and the market may reach new highs or at least extend a short-term consolidation along the 4,700 level. Investors will wait for tomorrow’s Retail Sales number release and some Fed-talk later in the week.
Here’s the breakdown:
- The S&P 500 is expected to extend its Friday’s advance this morning and it may get to the 4,700 level.
- Still no positions are justified from the risk/reward point of view.
As always, we’ll keep you, our subscribers, well-informed.
Trading position (short-term, our opinion; levels for S&P 500 continuous futures contract): No positions are currently justified from the risk/reward point of view.
Thank you.
Paul Rejczak,
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Effective Investments through Diligence and Care
