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przemyslaw-radomski

Fundamentals are awful and bound to cause a steeper decline!

December 20, 2008, 12:00 PM Przemysław Radomski , CFA

(...) The very interesting point raised here is "so many, myself included, see that the fundamentals of the general market are awful, and bound to cause a steeper decline". You are absolutely right - the fundamentals are awful, but - here's the tricky part - according to fundamentals should the DJIA be worth 6k or 9k? It is impossible to tell basing on the fundamentals alone. Besides, the long-term 'fair value' is one thing, and the emotions that can cause stocks to be under- or overvalued many times are another thing. I don't think that one can time the market using fundamentals. The fundamentals were mostly as bad when DJIA was at 14k - but back then the SENTIMENT was different. As far as short-term price swings are concerned, it is the psychology / emotions that drive the market. They are ultimately based on fundamentals, but it is the emotionality that is the most important part in the short term.

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