Based on today's price moves we decided to adjust our speculative positions in the precious metals sector. This alert includes the details and reasoning behind them.

• Read more

"Do you think that the move tonight in the metals has now turned into a bull market?" Is the question that we received based on today's pre-market moves and this is the question that we reply to in today's Market Alert. Dollar's and stocks' impact on metals remains negative, but will metals manage to rally anyway given the strength that they showed earlier today?

• Read more

Yesterday was another low-volume day in the precious metals sector. Gold moved a little higher on tiny volume while silver was basically flat and mining stocks declined a little. Are we going to see an immediate decline based on the tiny-volume rally in gold? Or are we going to see a breakout based on low volume during silver's and miners' decline? Read today's Market Alert and find out.

• Read more

The first six months of 2013 were not the best time to be the owner of a gold mine, or for that matter, the owner of gold mine stocks. Gold was not the worst Commodity of 2013's first half – in fact the worst was silver, which has dropped 34 percent year-to-date. The best commodity so far this year is oil, up 14 percent through July 11.

Hedge funds managers have most probably sold all that they wanted to sell and when they change direction and want to buy back into gold, they may find it difficult to rebuild their gold ETF holdings without bidding gold prices higher. Chinese buyers are already paying as much as $40 an ounce premium above the London benchmark price to buy gold, but to see what is the most likely outcome for the short-term (how gold is likely to move, not only where), we have to factor in the following facts:

• Gold stopped underperforming strongly relative to the U.S. dollar
• Gold price recently moved higher along with crude oil
• The short-term correlation between the metals and the USD Index
• Targets for next gold move and a likely price pattern
• The situation in silver confirms the outlook for gold
• Confirmed breakdown for the very long-term gold stocks to other stocks ratio

Today's Premium Update includes price targets for gold, silver and mining stocks and our estimation of how gold is likely to get there (based on the recent changes on the gold market).

• Read more

In the latest Premium Update we wrote that the upper border of the declining trend channel was not reached. We also wrote the following:

"As long as the miners don’t correct more than one half of their decline, this correction will be in tune with previous ones, and there are no bullish implications (please compare the retracements marked on the above chart)."

The above gave miners some room to rally without invalidating the downtrend (!). In fact, they can still rally a bit without changing the bearish outlook. How much can gold / silver / miners move higher before the bearish outlook is invalidated? You already know our take - our stop-loss levels for the current speculative short position are the borderlines at which the outlook would likely change.

• Read more