Gold closed at $1,365.90 on Thursday, which is a move above the April low. This breakout is not confirmed, though. We would need to see 2 additional, consecutive closing prices in order to confirm this breakout. The level that was reached is the resistance line that we marked on the long-term gold chart with a dashed line (in yesterday's Premium Update). The next strong resistance - a long-term one - is relatively close, approximately at $1,400. This resistance is the rising line based on 2005 and 2008 bottoms. Gold broke below it in June when it started a sharp decline. Meanwhile, silver and mining stocks moved to their June highs and showed strength once again.

In fact, miners and silver have continued to show strength against gold and gold has showed strength against the USD Index - and this is a bullish combination.

Is there anything that one might not like about the current rally? Is it a good idea to jump into the precious metals market completely? In yesterday's Market Alert we adjusted our speculative trading positions and in today's Market Alert we additionally cover the True Seasonal factors for gold, silver, mining stocks and the USD Index. There's a specific confirmation that we should see in the coming days that will help us determine whether this rally is really a true one.

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Market Alert sent on August 15th, 2013

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The short-term situation on the gold and mining stock markets is particularly interesting this week. Key issues that we cover in today's Premium Update include:

• Can we expect the dollar to strengthen in the coming weeks?
• The meaning of a corrective move in stocks - the link between precious metals and stocks seems much stronger now than it was in the previous weeks
• Gold-Alcoa link - simultaneous price moves could signal something for gold
• Gold's breakout above the declining medium-term resistance line and lack of breakout above the April low
• Silver's strength in recent days and its price target
• Gold mining stocks' outperformance and its implications for the coming weeks.
• Price targets, positions and stop-loss levels - key, actionable details.

Is gold an inflation hedge? Not really. It is a special investment vehicle that requires careful focus and analysis separate from only inflationary forces. Those forces no doubt affect the gold market. But not in a way many people often suggest, and in a way which leads to misplaced investments in gold. This is one of the issues that we deal with in today's Premium Update and also in this month's Market Overview.

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Gold declined, miners moved a bit lower but silver refused to decline yesterday. "What's going on?" might be the question you are asking yourself given this divergence. Is silver leading gold higher just like it used to in the early years of this secular bull market? On the other hand, we saw an invalidation of the breakout in the Euro Index, which by itself is a bearish sign for both the European currency and the precious metals market. These are some of the issues that we discuss in today's Market Alert. We invite you to read it.

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Gold and mining stocks moved to their very recent highs yesterday. We had already been at these price levels (with stronger USD) just several days before that. However, the story is different with silver - it moved higher above the recent high and showed strength which continues today. In today's Market Alert we take a closer look at the white metal.

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