Gold rallied about $20 in the last 24 hours and based on this move, it now seems clear what the next price action will be. We previously presented two alternatives for the likely outcome and based on what we just saw, the clear winner is now obvious.

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Seems contradictory, yet it's so true. Just like the Sir Arthur Conan Doyle's classic Silver Blaze: the story about the dog that didn't bark. As for precious metals, this signifies that we have already seen this kind of action already. Just when exactly have we met this deja vu experience? Let's take a look and find the answer together.

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Silver, the HUI Index (proxy for gold stocks) and the SIL ETF (proxy for silver stocks) just broke to new 2019 lows while the USD Index moved higher once again. Gold and GDX declined, but not so significantly as both mining indices. Are these the green shoots of an imminent upswing? Does their resilience foster hopes for a wind of change?

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Friday was a quiet day in gold and silver, which is quite often the case right before long weekends. The USD Index, however, moved to the downside and this seems to have triggered some strength in the mining stocks. The miners didn't move far, but enough to come back to the previously broken triangle pattern. What does this invalidation mean for this week?

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Remember the Shakira hit "Hips Don't Lie" from - believe it or not - over 10 years ago? We have something similar in the precious metals market. The market was shaken yesterday by the clear (?) reversal in the USD Index, but the mining stocks - just like hips from the song - don't lie. At least they didn't lie yesterday. Initially they rallied along with gold, but the time that they managed to stay strong was so small that it was immediately clear that yesterday's upswing in gold and silver is very far from being a game-changer. The GDX ETF moved back above the lower border of its previous triangle pattern, and it even moved a bit above its upper border. But this didn't last - it declined and closed the day back below the lower border of the triangle pattern, thus confirming the breakdown, instead of invalidating it. And it all happened while gold stayed close to its intraday highs. Miners had little reason to slide and yet they did. On Wednesday, we explained the significance of the extremely-low-volume session in the GDX ETF and the subsequent breakdown below the triangle pattern along with yesterday's epic weakness clearly confirm these indications. What's next?

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