Yesterday, we've pointed out the many bullish signals going for stocks, and saw them open higher, and extend their gains. Well, that was true about the first half of the session, as the S&P 500 returned to trading close to unchanged before the closing bell. Is the upswing over now?

In short, we doubt that.

S&P 500 in the Short-Run

Let's start with the daily chart analysis (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):

Yesterday's volume wasn't too high or too low - it's actually quite consistent with what you would expect to see during an unfolding uptrend. As a result, the upswing has a pretty good chance of continuation - especially when you consider that stocks made another closing high yesterday. True, it's still below the previous high, but we haven't seen any sign of a reversal.

That's why there can be no talk of a head-and-shoulders pattern reversal. First, the right shoulder isn't completed - and we haven't seen a breakdown below the neckline of this potential pattern-in-progress either. As it's not completed, it carries no implications - and in our opinion, taking on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is more likely than breaking below the 50% one. So much for the bearish pattern.

But today, we'll get the non-farm payrolls data, and they'll be horrendous, you might say.

Yes, they will be indeed ugly. Uglier than ugly. But we've seen this story on Wednesday already - the market took a hit initially, but refused to decline for much longer. Accompanied by the credit market signals, this has made us enter into a long position, and we're still profitably riding it this very moment. The point is that stocks have risen like phoenix from the ashes, and continue taking bad news in their stride. That's what bull markets do, by the way.

Let's recall our yesterday's notes - they might turn out handy later today should we get a really bad number:

(...) It would be easy to jump to conclusions and cry that the sky is falling - but would that be justified? As they say, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

The measured way of dealing with such a curveball would be to ask whether the outlook has changed.

Should the outlook as we assess it in its complexity indeed change, we'll make an appropriate decision.

Preaching to the choir, we went on to write these timeless thoughts:

(...) What is the lesson here?

As for each and every trade, it's to interpret the signals in their entirety - that's the only way to get odds in your favor as much as reasonably possible.

As for trading performance over the long run, it's to dutifully and attentively listen to the market's many messages on a daily basis - with an open and flexible mind. It's only over a long enough period of time and with sufficiently large a trade sample collection, that you see the edge you're working with bring fruits. Christmas doesn't come regularly in trading, and it would be foolish to jump out of the window because of any single trade.

Coupled with a money management lesson, you must give the edge enough breathing space to work its magic, and risk only as much (or even better, as little) so as to mount the next trade where the odds are again in your favor. And after that, the next one - regardless of the preceding day's result. And so on - trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

With that in mind, let's dive into the credit markets now.

The Credit Markets' Point of View

Opening with a bullish gap, high yield corporate debt (HYG ETF) gave up most of its intraday gains during the day, taking a dive in the last 30 minutes of trading. While the long upper knot looks sinister, the outlook again hasn't changed - they haven't broken below their recent lows.

The ratio of junk corporate bonds to short-dated Treasuries (HYG:SHY) has performed slightly worse yesterday, driven by rising Treasuries across the board. Yes, not only the short-term ones (SHY ETF) went up, the same goes for long-dated ones (IEI ETF) too.

Again, unless we get a break below the recent lows, this charts' outlook hasn't changed either.

Let's move to the key sectors next.

Key S&P 500 Sectors and Ratios in Focus

Another day, another new closing high in the tech sector (XLK ETF). Regardless of the upper knots of recent days, technology just continues to open higher the next day. While yesterday's volume has been heavier that the days before, it would be premature to talk about a reversal. As things stand currently, technology continues to lead the S&P 500 upwards.

Healthcare (XLV ETF) isn't performing as strongly, but it isn't breaking down either. The sector appears just consolidating. Should we see higher volume with yesterday's candle, that would be bearish - but it wasn't there. Thus, consolidation appears to be the most probable scenario here.

Supported by the bullish action in the HYG ETF early in the day, financials (XLF ETF) also opened with a bullish gap and extended gains. Unlike junk corporate bonds though, they haven't given them up before the session was over, which is a bullish sign for the sector - and thanks to its ratio to utilities (XLF:XLU), also for the whole index.

As for the stealth bull market trio of sectors (energy, materials and industrials), their performance was somewhat mixed yesterday. Both energy (XLE ETF) and industrials (XLI ETF) opened higher, gave up their intraday gains, and closed virtually unchanged on the day. Only materials (XLB ETF) did better and held onto around half of their regular session's gains.

Overall though, their message is bullish - and it's also supported by yet another monthly high in the consumer staples to discretionaries ratio (XLY:XLP). By the way, this leading indicator is already trading well above where it was throughout each and every day in March.

Summary

Summing up, stocks again proved resilient in the face of grim employment data yesterday. While high yield corporate bonds wavered in the final 30 minutes of trading, their outlook hasn't been invalidated - they continue to support the stock upswing. Coupled with the sectoral performance and key ratios, it's likely we'll see stocks shake off today's bad employment data, and continue their grind higher. Our open and profitable long position remains justified.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action we describe - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

Thank you.

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

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Yes, it has been only yesterday when we talked about the mixed signals stocks were sending out. Given yesterday's surprise finish to their intraday resiliency, it might seem misplaced to interpret those hints as bullish. Yet, that's exactly what has happened, and the following analysis will thoroughly cast light on all the whys.

S&P 500 in the Short-Run

We'll start with the daily chart analysis (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com ):

Starting off with the sizable upper knot of Tuesday's candle, the bulls suffered rejection of higher prices as they raced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement rendezvous on Monday. On the fundamental news front, all eyes were yesterday on the ADP employment data. Whichever way you look at it, losing over 20 million jobs over a month is plain horrible. We expected the market to sell off on the news - and it indeed initially do that by erasing the opening bullish gap and diving below yesterday's closing prices.

Hand-in-hand, we looked for the debt markets to decline. Just as the S&P 500, high yield corporate bonds (HYG ETF) also opened higher and kept sliding in confirmation of the developing S&P 500 downswing. Yet as they caught a bid just below $79, they stabilized and attempted to rebound, taking stocks predictably along. That was the moment we deemed our short position no longer warranted, closed it and actually entered a long one.

This is how we have justified the action in one of our yesterday's intraday Stock Trading Alert:

(...) High yield corporate debt (HYG ETF) retested the daily lows below $79, and it appears they're holding. Notably, the local lows support is at $78 - a full dollar lower. Looking at the sensitivity of stocks moving in lockstep with the instrument, that would translate into quite many points before we could talk of an outlook determinant (HYG ETF holding above support with each preceding intraday downswing fizzling out) having changed.

Monday's intraday HYG ETF low was $78.20, and the S&P 500 low was 2771. For sure, seeing corporate bonds dive well below $79 wouldn't be a happy sight, but it's not unimaginable in the short run - especially given the key Friday's jobs data (these are more important than tomorrow's unemployment claims). Yet, stocks haven't tumbled on today's figures - technology is up, healthcare refused to decline, and the volume behind declining energy, materials and industrials, will likely remain below yesterday's levels, which would take away from the bearish implications.

So, despite financials being close to their intraday lows (at $21.47), the sectoral outlook isn't disastrous in any way. Judgmentally, what was the strongest headline driving stocks lower at the start of the week? Trump playing the China tensions card. Stocks are listening to it more than to coronavirus and its job market or other implications.

Thus, it makes sense to interpret market action in light of the magnitude of reactions to unfavorable news and the time that has passed since. Especially after holding up this well against today's ADP figures. Bluntly speaking, it's like „throw at me whatever you want, I'll recover shortly".

And we don't know when the next hit will come. Will it be chart-driven, or a headline one? Unless it breaks the back of the HYG ETF (its support, that is), it doesn't change the outlook for stocks.

The above tendency of the S&P 500 to prove resilient almost no matter what, was clearly more than worthy of consideration. And then the Trump statement expressing doubts whether China would live up to its commitments under the trade deal, came. Given the above-expressed sensitivity to the US - China trade relations, stocks understandably took a dive in the final 30 minutes of trading, across its many sectors and with deterioration seen in the HYG ETF as well.

It would be easy to jump to conclusions and cry that the sky is falling - but would that be justified? As they say, don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

The measured way of dealing with such a curveball would be to ask whether the outlook has changed. And as we'll further see, no - it hasn't changed, and actually presented us with bullish signs.

But first things first. Stocks are headline-sensitive - we get that. Yet, we articulated our opinion that stock bulls would just dust themselves off and recover - and do so still in today's overnight session.

And that's exactly what has happened, by the way. Stocks found a floor and peeked higher even before the strong China export data came in. We've also seen the stock futures recovery to continue during the European morning hours.

What is the lesson here?

As for each and every trade, it's to interpret the signals in their entirety - that's the only way to get odds in your favor as much as reasonably possible.

As for trading performance over the long run, it's to dutifully and attentively listen to the market's many messages on a daily basis - with an open and flexible mind. It's only over a long enough period of time and with sufficiently large a trade sample collection, that you see the edge you're working with bring fruits. Christmas doesn't come regularly in trading, and it would be foolish to jump out of the window because of any single trade.

Coupled with a money management lesson, you must give the edge enough breathing space to work its magic, and risk only as much (or even better, as little) so as to mount the next trade where the odds are again in your favor. And after that, the next one - regardless of the preceding day's result. And so on - trading is a marathon, not a sprint.

All right, let's continue with the S&P 500 assessment and dive into the credit markets next.

The Credit Markets' Point of View

We've already discussed how well the high yield corporate debt held up in the aftermath of yesterday's horrific private payrolls data. Again, the slide below $79 happened in the last 30 minutes of trading, giving us a sizable daily red candle.

But has the HYG ETF outlook changed? It could have broken much lower both early in the session, and towards its end - yet it didn't. Just as in the Sherlock Holmes story "The Adventure of Silver Blaze", pay attention to the dog that didn't bark. And junk corporate bonds aren't screaming that the sky is falling. Should they break below their recent lows, that would be a different cup of tea entirely.

Let's proceed with sectoral analysis and key ratios. The messages are worth their weight in gold.

Key S&P 500 Sectors and Ratios in Focus

The tech sector opened higher, erased the ADP-driven downswing attempt, and only retreated in the final 30 minutes of trading. And again, this was a sight to see across many S&P 500 sectors. Still, it closed higher, which means that its leadership in the upswing-uphill battle remains intact.

Do you see how high the financials to utilities ratio (XLF:XLU) opened yesterday? Despite the setback, the ratio is making higher lows and trading with an increasingly bullish bias. This bodes well for higher stock prices ahead.

Consumer discretionaries to consumer staples ratio (XLY:XLP) is another leading indicator for stocks. It's moving up as well, speaking not so softly in favor of the stock upswing.

The metal with Ph.D. in economics closed higher compared to gold, as well pointing to the bullish spirits returning.

If you look at the above three ratios, it's apparent what we mean by the clear bullish signals. Regardless of yesterday's China-headline-driven downswing, all the three leading indicators have taken the setback in their stride.

That's what has given us increased confidence that the S&P 500 would rise like a phoenix in today's overnight session before you could say Jack Robinson.

And whatever today's unemployment claims figure, it remains likely for the above reasons, that the stock index would just shake it off.

From the Readers' Mailbag

Q: I learned that beleaguered Capri holdings and Macy's were removed from S&P 500 not too long ago and replaced by in-favor or better performing stocks, eg. home delivery restaurant or pharmaceutical.... how would that affect your S&P 500 analysis? just imagine this is an on going process.

A: Well, it is an ongoing process of the S&P 500 face lift, and these readjustments happen regularly. S&P 500 is a very broad index, and even if you take the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) only, its 30 stocks composition has seen 6 changes in the last 10 years. But could a finger be pointed on the chart, and meaningfully explain consequences of getting a particular stock in or out? No, and therefore it doesn't materially change the index analysis at the level we look at it on daily basis.

Q: your stop-loss is at xxxx or about x%, however, if I buy 3x ETF, what should the STOP be and profit target in percentage term?

A: On Apr 30, we've answered a very similar question that you might want to review.

Here's the gist. As for the leveraged ETFs, please note that it really depends on their underlying assets (i.e. the ETF's construction). Generally speaking, they are designed to magnify the intraday moves. If I were in your place, I would look at how the instrument performed during the recent upswings and downswings in the S&P 500 - did it roughly match the index move? That will serve as a useful guideline on where it's sensible to place any kind of limit or market orders. If it hasn't exactly matched that index move, a recalculation of what to reasonably expect from the instrument should the S&P 500 move to this or that level, is a sensible approach.

Finally, you're asking about the stop-loss percentage. We've already discussed how important it is to risk moderately per each trade so as to be able to experience the edge working in our favor over the long run. In the overview of Trade Results at the Performance page of my home site, you'll see the percentage of account risked on each past trade. That's a key building block in the money management, because it allows you to risk only as much as you are comfortable with in any trade. At the same time, we manage our open trades according to the prevailing outlook, which means that not every take-profit or stop-loss order has to be hit to take us out of the open position. Capital preservation is the rule number one. The offense wins matches, while the defense wins championships.

Summary

Summing up, stocks proved resilient in the face of grim employment data, and the key corporate credit market has held up well through the day. Seeing that coupled with the sectoral performance, has shifted our bias from short to long. The bullish outlook is supported by the leading ratios' performance, which goes to confirm the steadfast recovery from yesterday's Trump doubts regarding the China trade deal. The bulls certainly appear in the mood to keep climbing the wall of worry again, and our long position remains justified.

If you enjoyed the above analysis and would like to receive daily premium follow-ups, we encourage you to sign up for our Stock Trading Alerts to also benefit from the trading action we describe - the moment it happens. The full analysis includes more details about our current positions and levels to watch before deciding to open any new ones or where to close existing ones.

Thank you.

Monica Kingsley
Stock Trading Strategist
Sunshine Profits - Effective Investments through Diligence and Care

• Read more

Available to premium subscribers only.

• Read more

Available to premium subscribers only.

• Read more